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Establish

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Establish

    Establish

    EstablishtheLongeffectiveMechanismofFoodSecurityinChina ;WangYapeng,FangLing

    ;CollegeofEconomicsandManagement,HuazhongAgriculturalUniversity,WuhanHubei430070,China

    ;Abstract:Indespiteoffluctuationinrecentyearsthegrainyield ;inChinahasbeenincreasing,whichrelievestheconflictbetween ;supplyanddemandandturnsthesituationoffoodsecuritygood ;However,becauseoftherapidincreaseinfoodconsumptionthe ;conflictsoffoodqualityandstructureinthesupplyanddemand ;equilibriumhasbecomemoreandmoreobviousandthe

    ;long?-effectivemechanismoffoodsecurityhasnotbeenestab

    ;lishedyet.Itisfoundthatthefactorsaffectingfoodsecurityin ;Chinaincludethescarcityanddissipationofresources,farlners, ;lowenthusiasminplantinggraincropsandtheinappropriateness ;oftheemphasisandmeasuresofmacroeconomicregulationand

    ;contro1.Therefore,theauthorsadvancetooptimizeresources ;allocation,strengthenmacroeconomicregulationandcontroland

    ;policystimulationandestablishthemechanismofallocatinggrain ;productioncost,tosetupthelongeffectivemcchanismofChina

    ;foodsecurityandkeepitstableinthelongterm ;Keywords:foodsecurity,longeffectivemechanism,resource ;allocation,policystimulation,costallocation ;1Introduction

    ;Foodsecurityisofgreatimpo~ancensocia1andeco

    ;nomicdevelopment.1nrecentyearsthecentra1government ;hasreleasedfourNo.1documentsthatacknowledgefood ;securityasthemostimportanttaskinrura1economicand ;socialdevelopmentandcOrresp0nding1yputforwardaseries ;ofpoliciesandmeasures.Itindicatesthatthe1ong.efl’ective

    ;mechanismoffoodsecurityinChinahasnotbeenestab

    ;1ishedyetandthefoodindustryisstil1unsatisfVing. ;2SituationoffoodsecurityinChina

    ;Withtheentryintothenewcentury.thegrainyieldin ;Chinahasincreasedconstantlyforthreeyearssince2004. ;thoughithasdroppedcontinuallybefore2004,andthe ;grainpriceincreasesagaininOctober2006afterthatin ;2004andOctober2003,whichattractsattentionfrom ;evervwalkof1ife.

    ;Theconceptoff0odsecurityisfirstputforwardby ;Correspondingauthor:WangYapengn’an<

    ;~7)(amailhzaudt~(N

    ;FoodandAgricultureOrganization(FAO)attheWorld ;FoodConfeFenceinRomei11Novemberl979.Itsdefini

    ;tionthathasbeenwidelyacceptedwasadvancedby

    Genera1ofFAOinApri1l983. ;EdouardSaouma.Director

    ;whichreferstothat”necessaryfi)odisavailableandaf-

    ;fordabletoevel’yonewheneverhe/sheneeds”.Suchadeft—

    ;nitionfocusesonthefbllowingthreeaspects:first,the ;equalityoffoodsupply.i.eeveryoneisentitledtofood; ;second,thesufficiencyoffoodsupply,i.c.enoughfood ;shouldbeproducedandbeavailabletoeveryone;third,the ;stabi1itv0ff0odpiiceandguaranteeofCOllsumers’income.

    ;i.e.foodisaffordablebyeveryone.Productionisthebasis ;offoodsecurity,whilesufficientfoodsupplyisthecore ;andtheequilibriumbetweendemandandsupplyisthekey. ;Accordingly,thispartanalyzestheCUlTentsituationof ;China’Sfoodsecurityfromtheaspectsofproduction,sup—

    ;plyanddemand.

    ;2.1Grainyield

    ;China’sfoodyieldhasfluctuatedfrequentlyinthepast

    ;years.butinrecentyearsitincl’easesgradually.

    ;ThemostremarkablecfiectsoftheFCformofruraleco

    ;nomicsystemi11Chinaarethecontinua1developmentof

    ;grainproduction.theimprovementofyieldleve1andthe ;effectivesettlementofpopulationsubsistenceandthe ;gradualbalancebetweengrainsupplyanddemand.The ;tota1grainyieldin1979is332.1billionkg.Afterthe ;fu11scaleenforcementofthefamilycontractresponsibility ;system.thegrainyieldhasbeenincreasingsuccessively ;from350billionkgn1982to400bil1ionkginl984with ;anaverageannua1growthrateof7.83%.However.itdrops ;from1985to1988.whentheannua1gl’owthratesways

    ;frO11”16.9%to33%andtheaverageannua1growthrateis

    ;0.29%.From1989to1990.thegrainyieldincreasesagain ;andthetota1yieldapproaches450bilnonkgwithanaver

    ;ageannua1growthrate0f6.45%.Froml991tO1994.the ;grainyielddecreasesoncemore,especiallytheyieldin ;l99lis1lbillionkg1essthanthatinl990droppingby ;2.5%.Duringthisperiod.thegrowthrateofgrainyield ;cI11i1eseJourna]0fPopulati0].Resourcesa

    1dEnvimmnent2008”vbl6No.125

    ;

    ;swaysfrom-2.5%tO3.12%andtheaverageannualgrowth ;rateis0.4%.Betweenl995andl996.thegrainyieldin. ;creasesgreatlywithanannualgrowthrateof8.13%,espe

    ;cially;itsurpasses500billionkginl996.Afterwards.it ;dropsby2.05%to494.17billionkginl997whilein. ;creasesagainin1998and1999,surpassing500billionkg ;onceagain.Aftertheentryintothenewcentury,China’s

    ;grainyieldhasdroppedcontinuallyfrom2000to2003. ;Thetotalyieldin2000is46.2billionkglessthanthatin ;1999,droppingby9.I%,andin2001itdecreases9.55 ;billionkg,continuallydroppingby2.1%.In2002,thetotal ;yieldincreases4.4billion,upby1%.In2003,itdrops ;greatlyagain,26-36billionkglessthanthatin2002,drop

    ;pingby5.8%(Wang,2005),andthetotalyieldlevelretro

    ;gressestothatintheearlyl990sandyieldpercapitato ;thatinthel980s.Since2004.thecentralgovernmenthas ;adjustedvariouspoliciestoguaranteefoodsecurity,such ;asreducingandabolishingagriculturaltaxes,offeringdi

    ;rectsubsidytofarmerswhoplantgraincrops,adoptim

    ;provedvarietiesandpurchasefarmimplementsandprac. ;tlclngagalnthepolicyofminimumpurchasingprice,asa ;result,thegrainyieldbouncesback.Duringtheperiod ;from2004to2006.thegrainyieldincreases66.75billion ;kginal1.In2006.thetotalgrainyieldinChinais497.5 ;billionkg,l3.45billionkgmorethanthatin2005.in.

;creasingby2.8%(Table1).

    ;Table1Chinagrainproductionsince2000

    ;Source:ChinaStatisticalYearbook.NationalBureauofStatisticsof ;China,2006.

    ;2.2Grainsupplyanddemand

    ;AsforgrainsupplyanddemandofChina,thequantita

    ;tiveconflictisrelievedgradually,whiletheconflictof ;qualityandstructureisstilloutstanding.

    ;Fromtheaboveanalysis,itisknownthatsincetheentry ;26ChineseJoumal0fP0pulati0n,ResourcesandEnvironment2008Vo1.6No.1

    ;intothenewcentury,China’sgrainyieldhasdroppedin

    ;threeyearsandincreasedinfouryears.amongwhich.in ;2000.200land2003theyieldtotallyreduces82.1billion ;kgandin2002,2004,2005and2006ittotallyincreases ;71.194billionkg;thatis.theyieldreduces10.906billion ;inauinthesesevenyears.Especiallyin2003whenthe ;grainyielddropsto430.69billionkg,thegrainsupplyfalls ;shortofthedemand,resultinginthegreatincreaseingrain ;pricesinceOctober2003.In2004,thepriceofgraincrops ;increases25%-30%onaverageandgrainsupplyandde

    ;mandisinastateoftenseequilibriumwithahighprice.

    ;However,becauseofthecontinualincreaseintheyieldin ;2004,2005and2006andtheefficientreleaseofstored ;grainreservedinpastfewyears,thequantitativeconflict ;betweengrainsupplyanddemandismoreorlessrelieved ;andthegrainpricedropsin2007.Ontheotherhand,be. ;causeofthedifferencesofyieldincreaseamonggrain.va

    ;rietiesandtheevolvementofdemandandconsumiation ;structure,theconflictsofstructureandqualityofgrain ;varietiesemerge.Fromtheperspectiveofproduction,in ;2005,wheatincreases5.55billionto97.5billionkg, ;increasingbV6%,cornincreasesbV3.2%from4.2billion ;kgto134.5billionkg,ricereduces2.90billionto ;l82.00billionkg.stillincreasing1.6%andsoybeanre

    ;duces0.101billiontol7.30billionkg,droppingby ;0.58%(Cheng.2006).Fromtheperspectiveofconsump

    ;tion,influencedbythepopulationincrease,theimprove

    ;mentoflivingstandardandtherapiddevelopmentofthe ;animalproductionindustryandprocessingindustry,the ;consumptionofwheatandricekeepsstablethoughde

    ;creasesabitandthatofcornandsoybeanincreasesgradu. ;ally.Sincetheproductionandsaleofgrainareoperated ;independentlyandcannotbeconnectedproperly,thesup

    ;plyanddemandforwheatandricecanonlyberoughly ;guaranteed,thatforcornisinabalancewithsomesurplus ;andthesupplyofsoybeanfallsshortofthedemand(Table ;2).Meanwhile,generallyspeaking,thequalityofriceand ;wheatcanmeetthedemand,buthighqualityriceandweak ;glutenwheatwhichareusedtomakebreadstillneedim

    ;portingtomeetthedemand.

    ;2.3Grainconsumption

    ;Althoughthegrainconsumptionincreasescontinually, ;theroleplayedbyimportandexportandreservationis ;strengthened.

    ;

    ;

    ;ThedemandforgrainconsumptioninChinaconsistsof ;grainrationofurbanandruralresidents,animalfeed,in

    ;dustrialandseeduses.Atpresentthedemandforgrain ;rationisstablewithslightdecreaseanimalfeedincreases ;gradually,industrialuseincreasesrapidlyandseeduseis ;stable.Accordingtothesurveyoftheurbanandruralresi

    ;dentsandthedataoffloatingpopulation,theconsumption ;ofgrainrationasawholeisabout269billionkgin2005 ;and267.5billionkgin2006.dropping1.5billionkg.Gen

    ;erally.basedoncostdata,theconsumptionofanimalfeed ;inacertainyearcanbefiguredoutbymultiplyingyieldof ;livestockandpoultrybytheamountofanimalfeedper ;livestockandpoultryconsuming.China’sanimalhus—

    ;bandryisoperatedthroughthecombinationofproduction ;onthesmallfaiinhouseholdscaleandtheoperationand ;specializationofenterprises.Withrice.chafrandbranre

    ;mainedingrainrationconsumptionandthesideproducts ;inindustrialuseallturnedintoanimalfeedandtheim

    ;provementofanimalbreedingtechnologies.itisestimated ;thattheaverageannualgrowthrateofmeatproductinre

    ;centfiveyearsis4%andthatofanimalfeedonly3%.The ;consumptionofanimalfeedis165.0billionkgasawhole ;in2005andl66.5billionkgin2006.increasing5billion ;kg.Promotedbytheimprovementofprocessingcapability, ;theannualgrowthrateofindustrialgrainuseinthetenth ;fiveyearis5%.Theindustrialgrainuseis55.3billionkg ;in2005and62billionkgin2006.increasing6.7billionkg. ;Sincethesownareaandsowingtechnologiesarerarely ;changedintheshortrun.theseeduseisstable.Itisl1.9 ;billionkgin2005andl2billionkgin2006.

    ;Consideringthegrainproductionandtheoverallcon

    ;sumptionofgrainration.animalfeed.industrialandseed ;uses.in2006thetotalgrainyieldis497.45billionkgand ;theconsumptionis505billionkg.Thegapisl0.55billion ;kg.whichisstillwideningcomparedwiththatin2005.If ;theaccumulativeamountofgrainreductionandincreaseis ;considered.foodsecurityinChinaisratherserious.Inre

    ;centyears,thebalancebetweengraindemandandsupplyis ;stable,forimportandexportandreservationhaveplayed ;animportantpart.Accordingtothestatistics,before2000 ;China’sgrainreservationissufficientwithaproportionin

    ;grainconsumptionover40%andperfaiinhouseholdhas ;anannualsurplusof250to300kg,therefore.between ;2000and2003,thebalancebetweengrainsupplyandde

    ;mandisregulatedbyreleasingreservation.Ontheother ;hand.thenetgrainimportis24.85billionkgin2004, ;Table2Balancebetweenproductionandconsumptionofdifferentgrainvariet

    iesfrom2001to2005

    ;(billionkg)

    ;Source:ChinaStatistica1Ycarbook.Nationa1BurcauofStatisticsofChina.2

    006

    ;ChineseJournal0fPopuIation,ResourcesandEnvironment2008Vol6No127

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