On Current Situation and Developing Trend

    of International Trade

    Abstract: The knowledge economy is penetrating constantly every area in the whole world, and the process of the globalization of world economy is accelerating the further development of international economy and trade. So, there are some new characteristics in the development of international trade, for example？the new changes and characteristics in the developing speed of

    international trade？the changes of structure in international trade, the disequilibria of development in international trade, the integrity of regional economy , and so on. International trade also demonstrates some new trend at the same time. The trade of high technology-intensive products will increase sharply, E-commerce and network trade will become the mainstream of trade way, management trade is growing fast, the technological barrier will become the main means of trade protection, the dispute of the intellectual property right will become the main dispute in international trade, etc. Facing the opportunity and challenge in international trade, our country should take relevant countermeasures actively; fully utilize the favorable factors in international environment to promote economy development of our country.

    Keywords，international trade; present situation; developing trend; our

    challenge and opportunity; countermeasure

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     摘要: 知识经济正在不断渗透到全球各个领域？世界经济全球化进程正在加快？这些都更加有力的推动着国际经济与贸易的进一步发展？从而使国际贸易的发展出现了以下新的特点？如，国际贸易的发展速度有了新的变化和特点！国际贸易的结构发生了显著的变化！技术贸易也有了迅速发展！国际贸易发展的不平衡！地区经济一体化合作加强等。同时也呈现出以下新的趋势？如，高技术密集型产品贸易将急剧增长！电子商务和网络贸易将成为贸易方式的主流？管理贸易迅速发展！技术壁垒成为贸易保护的最主要手段！知识产权方面的纠纷将成为国际贸易中的主要争端等。面对国际环境中的机遇和挑战？我国应积极采取相应的对策？充分利用国际环境中的有利因素促进我国对外贸易的发展。

     关键词，国际贸易; 现状; 发展趋势; 我国的机遇; 挑战; 对策

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    Contents

    Abstract……………………………………………………………………i Contents…………………………………………………………………iii Introduction………………………………………………………………1 1. New changes and new characteristics in international trade……1 1.1 The developing speed of international trade………………………1 1.2 The structure of international trade………………………………3 1.3 The disequilibria of development in international trade…………7 1.4 The integrity of global economy.…………………….……………9 2. New trend in international trade.…………….……….…………10

     2.1 The trade of high technology-intensive products…….…….……10

     2.2 E-commerce and network trade, management trade………………11 2.3 The technological barrier….……………….…………….………13 2.4 The dispute of the intellectual property right….………………..…14 2.5 The liberalization of global trade….………………………….……14 3. Opportunity and challenge and countermeasure………….……15 3.1 Opportunity and challenge…….…….……………….………..…16

    3.2 Countermeasure…………….……………………….…………19

    Conclusion………….…….…………….…………….…………….……..…21 Bibliography………….…….…………….……….……………..……22 Acknowledgement………….……………………….…………….…..…23

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Introduction

    International trade is also called world trade？it refers to the circulation

    of commodities in various countries, and the total foreign trade in the countries all over the world. A country’s development level of foreign trade

    reflects a nation’s opening degree and degree of dependence to the world economy. A country’s foreign trade turnover as compared with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calls the degree of dependence of economy to foreign trade. So, it is our most important and basic work in our opening-up to the outside world to participate in international trade actively. We should pay much attention to the study and research of international trade, and grasp its characteristic and developing trend.

    1. New changes and new characteristics in international trade

    At present, there have appeared some new changes and new

    characteristics in international trade.

    1.1 The developing speed of international trade

    After the World War Two, no matter the growth of world exports or volume off trade has exceeded prewar greatly, prewar 1913-1938, the average annual growth rate of world export volume of trade was only 0.7%, but in 1950-1984, it was raised to 6.7%. Since 1950-1989, calculated according to the current price, the average speed of growth of world trade

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    had increased at an annual rate of about 10%, which was one more times faster than the international economic growth rate at the same period. According to the growth speed of exports volume of trade and volume of GDP in chief western countries, the former is faster than the latter greatly too. In 1951-1980, the average annual increase rate of export trade volume in America, Japan, West Germany, France and Britain is 10.7%, 18.4%, 16.5%, 12.8% and 10.2%, but its increase rate of GDP is 3.3%, 8.1%, 5.0%, 4.5% and 2.4% in the same period. This are because the scale of circulation of commodities in the world wild is expanded unprecedented, the economic dependence is strengthened day by day among various countries, the internationalization of produce is developing rapidly, and the development of multi-corporation, have deepened the international division greatly. At present, there are 37 thousand corporations in the whole world, subsidiaries in various countries have reached 170 thousand, and its annual sales amount is about 5500 billion dollars that has increased the repeated turnover in international trade greatly. For instance, there are still a series of factors on influence the rapid increase of international trade, for example, GATT reduces the tariff; the establishment of the regional trade group; constant enlargement of the munitions trade; enlargement of foreign trade and world economic growth got a further development in the 1980s and the 1990s. On the later 1980s, the average annual increase of production is 3%-4%, but the average annual increase of world export is 7%-8%, the

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    latter is about 1 time higher than the former. In 1991 and 1992, the international economic growth rate was about 1%, but the growth rate of

    [5]international trade was 3% and 5.5% respectively.

    1.2 The structure of international trade

    The structure of international trade has changed prominently, the manufactured goods and environmental protection goods have risen, and international service trade and technological trade develop rapidly. 1.2.1 The proportion of primary product has dropped, but the proportion of manufactured goods has raised, this is an outstanding behavior of international trade structure after the war. In 1963, the primary product still accounted for 42.2% of the world export, the manufactures goods accounted for 5.5%, the former lowered to 28.4%, and the latter rose to 57.9% in 1987. Such proportion in the developed country is much bigger, in 1965, the primary product accounted for 31%, and manufactured product accounted for 69%, but in 1989, the former dropped to 21%, and latter roused to 79%. In the same period, the primary product of developing country is lowered from 78% to 47%, and the export of manufactured product rose from 20% to 53%. This kind of trend will continue developing in the future. Now, new industrial materials and new energy have caught up with and exceeded traditional raw material and energy more and more, for example: plastics, glass, chemical fiber, nuclear energy, and so on. 1.2.2 Since the 1980s, with the thorough development of international

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    division, international service trade as a tertiary industry is a dark house, its development speed shows a tendency to exceed the international trade in goods and becomes an important standard of weighing the international competitiveness of a country. It is being paid attention to by various countries. The total volume of international service trade rose from 38 billion dollars in 1980 to 159.51 billion dollars in 1990, 281.5 billion dollars in 2000, reached to 290.6 billion dollars in 2003, and its average annual growth speed was 6%. 2% compared with that of last year in 1993, but international service trade increased by 3%, reduced the volume of the world commodity trade. In international service trade, the developed country accounts for 3/4 of the share, it is a subject of international service trade, the pattern replying mainly on America and Europe. U.S.A is the biggest service trade exporter in the world, it has obvious advantages in new developing service items such as Telecommunication, Data processing, Bank, Insurance, and so on.

     Before the World War Two, international service trade is mainly about the input or output of labor force, but after the war, because of the development of new scientific and technical revolution, service trade such as travel, transportation, bank, finance, insurance, law, communication, advertisement, technology and consultation moves toward international market progressively. After 1980s, the proportion of transportation and travel in service trade dropped relatively, technology, knowledge,

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    capital-intensive service trade developed rapidly. The development of international service trade regards new and high technology as a core, the progress of technology as the motive forcing. Because of the development of information technology, the development of international service trade in

    [2]the worldwide shows a tendency to rise wholly.

    1.2.3 The swift and violent development of industrial technology has promoted economic growth, progress of the society and improvement of human life, but it also certainly destroys the environment that the mankind depends on for existence at the same time, and this kind of destruction has the tendency to further worsen, the sustainable development of economy and human society reserves serious influence. At present, the environmental problem causes the global concern. The government, organization and people of various countries have already realized the severity and urgency of protecting the human living environment in the world progressively. In 1992, the United Nations “Meeting of environment

    and development”, have strengthened people’s environmental

    consciousness of the world greatly. The demand for green products such as: harmless pollution-free food, green refrigerator, green air conditioner, green computer, green car and so on has risen obviously, thus promoting the changes of industrial department such as electric apparatus, energy, architecture, petrochemical industry, etc. Preventing and curing pollution, energy-conservation and information service will form a new developing

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    industry. The environmental protection technology has already occupied 60% of the international markets in North America and Western Europe. According to the investigations of 7 industrialized countries in the west, people who resist non-environmental protection products account for 79% of the total number.

    In order to solve the problems in trade, on December, 15, 1993, at the negotiation committee member’s meeting of Uruguay Round, “meeting

    regarding trade and environment”, determine to draft a working schemes of

    trade and environment, make and strengthen the rule of interaction between trade and environmental measure, supervise the trade measure used in the environment, and the environmental protection measure related to trade. With the enhancement of the environmental consciousness of international community, the environmental protection project is paid extremely attention in international support and investment. At present, a lot of countries not only introduce the strict environmental protection regulation successively, but also make the principle of “environmental protection

    products have priority” in foreign trade, no matter industrial country or “young industrial country”. American president Clinton proposes clearly:

    Make the export preferential policy for environmental protection products. European Union has already made “Input green” policy. The ASEAN

    countries determine to impose the low tariff on environmental protection products. This will exert a far-reaching influence on the development of

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international trade.

    1.2.4 Technological trade develops rapidly. Technological trade is generally the deal in the knowledge of production technology. Such as inventing and creating patent right, technological license, engage the expert to give lectures, study abroad and train, etc. Technology has the differences of software and hardware, technological knowledge belongs to the software, and machinery equipment belongs to hardware. At present, it is an outstanding phenomenon in world trade that technological trade develops quickly. There was only several hundred million to billions of dollars in the 1950s and 1960s, by the end of 1980s, the technological trade volume in the world has already exceeded 50 billion dollars, and presents the trend of further growth.

    1.3 The disequilibria of the development in international trade

    The disequilibria of development in international trade has already reached a serious extent after the war, which displays in each important respect of international trade, and develops rapidly in recent years, it also exerts an important influence on the conflict between world economy and trade. First of all, it displays in the disequilibria of the developing speed of trade. The economy of America develops fast after the war, it accounted for 18.3% of the total volume of world export trade in 1950, Japan accounted for 1.5% only, and they had already accounted for 11.7% and 8.9% respectively by 1989. But the proportion of developing country in

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