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Victory

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Victory

    Victory

20109

    16卷第5

    湖北成人教育学院

    JournalofHuBeiAdultEducationInstitute

    Sep,2010

    Vo1.16No.5

    VictoryorDefeatinModernWar?

    武文,王立群2

    (1.长江职业学院,湖北武汉,430074;2.中南民族大学工商学院,湖北武汉,430074)

    [摘要]本文依据现代战争的特点和环境,对传统的克劳塞维茨战争胜负观提出了

    挑战.

    『关键词]克劳塞维茨;现代战争的胜负

    [中图分类号】G93[文献标识码]A[文章编号]1673--3878(2010)05007504

    CanwesayHider'sinvasionofFranceisvictory.f0rhis SU~SSfUIapplicationofblitzkriegcampaign?Canweconsider Saddam'sinvasionofKuwmtasvictoryforhishitovernight7 CanwedefinetheUSasvictorinGu1fwarbecauseitflllfmed "EffectsBasedOperations"7TheIndustryRevolutionand TheInformationRevolutionhadnotonlyempoweredhuman being~tocreateunprecedentedlyadvancedweaponsbutalso madecountriesinterdependent,economicallyandpolitically, whichrequiresthatweshouldjudgevictoryanddefeatin wal'f~fromabwaderperspective.

    Initially,inthispaperIcriticizetwoprevailingbut partialdefinitiomofvictory:thedesired~endstate

definitionandthecostbenefitdefmifion;Then,Itryto

    shedlightontheconceptionofvictoryanddefeatfroma broadersense.arguingthatthetotalvictoryshouldinclude twoparts:winningthebattle;andthenattainingthe objectivesofthewarwhichnecessitatesachievingfive interrelatedobjectives:militaryobjective.politicalobjective, economicobjective,socialandculturalobjective-by enlargingtheClansewitziandefinitionofvictory.In conclusion.Ireiteratemyviewandmakesomeimplicationsto policymakersandstrategists.

    ConventionalDefinitionsofVictory

    Thedesired-endstat~notionargue8thatvictoryoccursif thewaroutcomeismoreorlessinc0?eslp]rwithastate'8

    previouslyarticulatedp01icyaimsandoutcomesthatprecipitatedits entryinto?妇[".sviewpointtakesthecomistencybetween waroutcom~andtheplannedaimastheg,m~etodiffererlisle victoryfromdefeat.sviewaroll9esat1easttwoproblen~==the first0misaboutthelleIt8iIltyandinstabilityinwRrandin

    ledaimoutoftheparticipants'control,encounteringthis circumstant~.onehastoadjusthislX~viousaimandstralt~to ma~miTethebenefitandn~irniTethec0sLAndwarsrarelyfollow ao0totallycjpabytheparticipants,as"states

    finishforthereas0theyartthem."[Besides.

    "the

    resultisunt~rtain''(aau9e,OnW).

    Thesecondproblemisaboutwaroutcomeinshortterm andlongterm.Probablywaroutcomeaccordswiththe previousaiminshortterm.However.duetotheadvancement ofhistory,thewar-beneficialtomerelyonegenerationorone

handfulofrulers.possiblybetestified?wrongdoingforhis

    nationaswellashumnnhistoryforconsiderabledisastersit broughttopeopleandtheirdescendants.Canwedefinethis kindofwarasvictoryjustforthetemporary.aimachieved7 CanwesayHider'sinvasionofFranceinMay1940isa victory.forhissuccessfulapplicationofblitzkriegcan1paign? CanweconsiderSaddam'sinvasionofKuwaitisavictoryfor hishitovemight7Definitelynot.althoughtheyhadfulfilled theirdreamsinshorttime.Whereby"theresultisnever final"(Clauseewitz,OnWar).

    Thecostbenefitdefinitionfocusesonwhetherwar

    generallyhasbeenworththeeffort,justifyi~theliveslost andmoneyspent.Thisconceptionismisleadingatleastin twoways:1)thisapproachisshortsighted,foritneglects.

    oratleastdownplayslongtermeffectsofwar.Temporary

    SU~SSthroughunjustorinhumanwarmeAlsuresisdoomedto failureinhistory.Militarismandexparrsionismathe

    representativesofcostbenefitpaRem-whichhavebrought

    terribledestructiontohumanbaing~.2)Costbenefitnotion

    isonesided,foritmerelyconsiderstheratiobetweenthe [收稿日期]20100710

    [作者简介]武文,长江职业学院教师;王立群,中南民族大学工商学院教师.

    ?

    75?

    benefitandtheliveslostandmoneyspent.Itisimpossibleto clearlycalculatethecostandthebenefitinmodemworld whereinternationalcommunityIeconomicinterdependence.

    roundexchangesareconstraints,overtlyorcovertly. aU

    affectingcostandbenefitinwarfare.

    TheoreticalBackgroundandAlternativeExplanation

    Traditionally-wedefinevictoryordefeatfromthe perspectivethatifonestatecanwininthetheatreornot- regardlessofpolitical.socialandeconomicconditions. AccordingtoClausewitz.victory,consistsoftwoinseparable pans:tactically,w.mningthebattle;strategically,atta~ theobjectivesofthewar,thereislinearcausalrelationship betweentacticalandstrategicdefinitionsofvictory. Moreover-Clausewitziandefinitionofwaris"warnotmerely anactofpolicybutatruepoliticalinstrument,acontinuation ofpoliticalintercourse.carriedonwithother?leaTls."Inother

    wordslClausewitzobservedthatwininginthebattleisthe premiseofthelatter---politiealobjectiveor"compelour enemytodoourwm".

    Inabroadersens~,Iarguethattheoverallvictoryshould includetwoparts:winningthebattle;andthenattainingthe objectivesofthewarnotjustthepoliticalobjective1which necessitatesachievingfourinterrelatedobjectives:military, political.economic,socialandculturalobjectives.Those objectivesareindispensablefactorsofvictory. I.Military0bjectlve

    ~itm-yobjectiveistothoroughlyweakenordestroythe loser'sfuturewarmMdrtgcapacity-includingtwoparts:to

    eliminatethepossibilityofmilitarythreatfromloser;to maintainitscapacityforcivilsecuritytosuppresscivilunrest, insurgency,andextremeactivitiesthatfrequentlyoccurredin defeatedcoilstries.

    Inthefirstplace-itisatragedytoobservethatthe defeatedsidecanquicklyrecoverfromthefailureinbattle andfosteritsarmedforcespowerfulenoughinmihtaryto threatenIevenhunchawartoattackthevictorinshort

    term.Howtoachievethisdemandingobjective71)Limit thescale,thebranches-andtheweaponsoftheloser's armedforces.andmaintainitscapacityforselfdefense

    andcivilsecurity.PersuasivecaseistheTreatyof Versailles.itexertedgenerallimitationofthearmamentsof German.2)Removethecen~eofgravityinthecommand andcontrolsystemofthedefeatedmilitary,especially commanderscentralinorig~troopswithaggressivespirit ortendencyforrovenge.Theirinherentmindsarehardto change.frompsychologicalaspect.Besides.theyaIewell

    informedincivilbelligerence.andeasilyestabhshan alliancetorevengeindirectorindirectstrategyfortheir defeatinbattle.3)Obliteratetheunfavorabteideology, suchasmilitarismandexpansionismthatprevailsinits commandersandsoldiers.thusultimatelytocontroltlleir minds.

    1astbutnotleast.itisequallyimportanttomaintainthe ?

    76?

    vanquishedside'scapacityforcivilsecurity,forcivilsecurity istIlepreconditionforpoliticalstabillwandeconomic development1whilemilitarychaosandcivilunrestwillbe obstaclesforpolitical.economicandsocialtransformation. erebythe"victort'shouldhelpthedefeatedsidemaintain orreestablishapropersecurityforcestrongenoughforserf

    defenseandto9ectll~politicalreformandtoexorcise belligerents,insurgents,eventerrorists.

    Casestudy

    TreatyofVersailles

    AlthoughnotWalyimplemented.thepurposeandcontext oftheTreatyofVersaillesisworthwhiletoexamiI1e.It functionsasamilestoneinmilitarytransformationofdefeated stateinws~history.PartVofthetreatybeginswiththe preamble,''Inordertorenderpossibletheinitiationofa generallimitationofthearmamentsofallnations,Germany undertakesstrictlytoobservethemilitary,navalandair clau8eswhiehfollow.II[J

    'Germanarmedforceswi11numbernomorethanl0o. 000troops,andconscriptionwillbeabolished. Enlistedmenwillbere~nedforatleast12years; ot~cerstoberetainedforatleast25years.

    GermannavalfoIceswillbelimitedto15-00omen,6 battleships(nomorethan10-000tonsdisplacementeach),6 cruisers(nomorethan6,000tonsdisplacementeach),6 destroyers(nomorethan800tonsdisplacementeach)and12 torpedobeats(nomorethan200tonsdisplacementeach). Nosubmarinesaretobeincluded.

    Blockadesonshipsareprohibited.

    Restrictionsonthemanufactureofmachine~tlnsand rifles.(seetable1)

    1'a,le1.MaxinlumStocksAuthorized

    MaxilnulnEstablishment

    MaxinlumTotals

    Materialaumberofafireperunit(R

    ounds)

    aMthoriz~(Rounds)

    R-?es84,00040040

    .

    800.000

Carbines18.000

    Heavymachine

    7928,000l5,408,000

    guns

    Lightmachine

    1,134

    guns

    Mediumtrench634I?25

    ,

    200

    mortars

    Lighttrench

    1898oo151,200

    mortars

    Fieldartillery:

    7.7cmguns2O41,000204,000

    10.5cm848o067

    .200

    howizers

    SourcesisfromtheTreatyofVersailles.

II.Political0bjective

    Inmyargument,politicalobjectiveisnotjustto "compelo111"enemytodoo111"will".butalsototransformtIle

    natureofthegovemmentandthenestabhshapeAtceloving

    regimeandultimatelytofitlfilllongtermorperpetualpeace- for"thewe~essofastate'spoliticalsystemhasalsobeen

    identifiedasaparticularlyimportantincentivetopursuean

    aggressiveforeignpolicy.''[5Theoutbreakofwax'isclosely relatedtothenatureandpolicyofthegovernmentwhichmight

    beafascism,atotalitariangovernmentoraextremism government-asClausewitz"OnWar"putit"wesee-

    therefore,thatwarisnotmerelyanactofpolicybutatrue politicalinstrument,acontinuationofpoliticalintercourse, carriedonwithothermeans".Thus,inordertoeradicatethe pohticalrootsofwarthevictormusttransformoroverthrowits governmenttopreventthedefeatedgovernmentgoinstowards amoreextremedirection,8afegtlardiIthefruitinthebattle. Ontheotherhand,undeniably.withecollapseorparalysis

    oftheoligovernment,avarietyofpoliticalforcesare pronetostruggleforpowerandinterestsindefeatedstate wheretheactiveinterventionfromthevictorstohelptorealize democracyisurgentlyneedfu1.

    Waysofachievingpoliticalobjectiveare:?Victor

    ove/~llrowsordrasticallytransformsthe?igiJ1algovernmentin

    thevanquishedsideandthenestabhshesademocraticre~giNle- "inwhichpeoplecaIncompetitivelyforthepecple$votes

    toachievethepowertomakepublicdecisions."[?Victor

    helpsthenewgovernmentdownapeacefulaswellas

    supremeconstitutionprescribingitspoliticalstructureandthe balanceofpower.

    Casestudy

    WstemA1liedCountries'

    postWorldWarII.

    Nazismmustbeeradicatedtoestabhshdemocratic

    pohticalsystemtoaccomplishtheallroundprogressin

    GermaninpostWW?.Infact,thetransformationonGerman

    wasachievedmainlythroughthreeaspects:nonNazism.

    nonmilitarizationlanddemocratization.Firstlylthefour chiefalliedcountries:Britain-FranceISovietUnionandthe

    UnitedStatesoccupiedtheirrespectivezonesinGerman. Prussia,astaginggroundforrecurringplague.was completelyseparatedandwipfoffthemap.Then-drawing lessonsfromefailureofsanctionstowardsGermanafterWW I,thefourcountriespaidmoreemphasisoneradicating GermanymilitarismandNazismfrompoliticalandeconomic perspectives,aimedatestablishingasounddemocratic poeticalsysteminGermanandc玎雠ngapeaceloving

    country.Secondly-alliedcountriesbroughtthemajorNazi criminalstotrialswheretl1eywereseverelypunished. Thirdly.alliedceuntl'iestransformedGermanbyimplementing theprinciplesof"nonNazism''and"nonmilitarization."

    "NonNazism"wastopeouttheimpactsofNazismin

    Germanspolitics,economy.educationandotheralI

    ?

    77?

    whichinGermanlaidfoundationfordemocracy.Fourthly, alliedcountrieshns矗脚edGermanthroughdemocratization. Ontheonehand-whilecultivatingawarenessofitscitizens' politicalparticipationandsenseofnationalresponsibility, Westemalliedcountriesindcouinateddemocracythrough educationandpublicity.Ontheotherhand,alliedcountries inaccordancewithprinciplesofdemocracy,rehabilitatedand reconstructedGerman'spoliticalstructure.

    Il1.EconomicObjective

    EconomicobjectivemainlyfocusesonSUCCESSof

    economicreconstructioninthedefeatedcountry.Forthe loser'sfullparticipationinwarandhugedestructibilityof war,the~onomyandbusinessenvironmentIespeciallythe fundamentalinfrastructuresandcommunicationfacilitiesin

    thevanquishedstateareusuallyinmins.Ontheotherhand. democracyislikeNapoleon~army-"Anyunnymarchesonits stomach"-Napoleonfamouslyobserved.Economic

    development.thematerialfoundationofpoliticalandsocial transformation,willconsolidatevictoryinmilitary. "Economicrecoveryistomymindtheonlygenuineexit strategyforpeacekeeping."[71

    Typify.inmodemwoddwhereCroSSbordercapital

    flows.andglobalexchangeofgoodsarepromotingthemutmd penetrationandintegrationofalmostallcountriesandno countrycanstandalooffromtheprocessofglobalizafion.the victorshouldhelptheloserintegrateintointernationaland regionaleconomicentity.Methodsofingeconomic objective:?11hevictorcarlcl~gethebackwardseconomic patternofthedefeatedcountryIforexample,chaleits economicpatternfromclosedeconomytoopenandfreene. fromplannedeconomytomarketmechanism.?111evictor

    canhelptheloserutilizethelocaladvantagetocompetein worldeconomy-suchag.raWmaterial.energy,orgeographic advantage.?evictorcanhelptheloserimprove

    investmentenvironmenttoabsorbinternationalcapita].@The victorcaninvestdirectlyinthevanquishedside. CaseStudy

    America'seconomicpoliciestowardsJapaninpost

    . WorldWar?

    ItwasimpossibleforJapan,locatedinislands,seriously dependingonforeignmaterialandenergy"toseekrapid economicrecoverywithitsownefforts.Anotherthornyissueit facedthenwastheshortageofthenecessary'prerequisitefor t}lereproduction:capitalandmarkets.ItWaSthediroet

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