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     March 17, 2010 March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Momentum building for pulp prices; Suzano and Fibria up to Buy

     Strong momentum building for pulp prices on supply constraints

     We see potential for pulp prices to enjoy continuing strong momentum for the next few years, leading pulp stocks to re-rate. The core of our bullish call on pulp, since June 2009, has been that supply constraints should keep the market tight even with conservative forecasts for demand recovery. We therefore upgrade Fibria and Suzano to Buy from Neutral. We believe This dynamic should maintain the industry??s ship-to-cap ratio at high levels. Exogenous events such as the Chilean earthquake and Finnish port strike postpone the inventory rebuild process and tighten global pulp supply-demand further. We forecast a global market pulp deficit of 1.8 mn tons during 2010E-12E. We see the BEKP price rising from the current level of US$790/ton to US$950/ton by year-end 2010E and US$990/ton by year-end 2011E. As a result, we raise EPS estimates (and target prices): 2011E EBITDA increases by 50% for Fibria and 85% for Suzano.


     Key data Price (R$) 12 month price target (R$) FBR Price ($) FBR 12 month price target ($) Market cap (R$ mn) 12/09 1.44 2.12 1.44 2.12 25.7 26.2 12/09 (0.32) (0.32) 12/10E 0.64 2.15 0.64 2.15 58.2 59.2 3/10E (0.23) (0.23) 12/11E 2.53 1.96 2.53 1.96 14.6 14.9 6/10E 0.65 0.65 Current 37.05 63.90 21.40 34.50 17,337.0 12/12E 4.17 -4.17 -8.9 9.0 9/10E (0.29) (0.29)

     EPS (R$) New EPS (R$) Old FBR EPS (R$) New FBR EPS (R$) Old P/E (X) FBR P/E (X)

     EPS (R$) FBR EPS (R$)


     Key data Price (R$) 12 month price target (R$) Market cap (R$ mn) Current 21.60 36.50 6,763.4

     Fibria and Suzano both upgraded and added to LatAm Focus List

     Among the commodities we follow, iron ore and pulp enjoy the tightest global supply-demand outlook over the next year or two, in our view. However, investors seem to have low exposure to the pulp sector. We see pulp stocks as having stronger ST momentum than iron ore or steel stocks. Pulp stocks are currently trading at a discount to mid-cycle 2010E EV/EBITDA and the market seems to be underestimating the pulp price cycle. Suzano is our new top pick among LatAm natural resources

stocks followed by Fibria and Vale (Buy, price $30.87).

     Revenue (R$ mn) New Revenue (R$ mn) Old EPS (R$) New EPS (R$) Old P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) ROE (%)

     12/09 3,952.7 3,807.3 2.87 3.58 7.5 8.5 21.6

     12/10E 4,595.2 3,643.9 2.35 1.54 9.2 5.7 15.6

     12/11E 5,562.7 4,012.9 3.98 1.15 5.4 4.1 22.6

     12/12E 5,978.2 -4.57 -4.7 4.3 21.1

     EPS (R$)

     12/09 0.45

     3/10E 0.34

     6/10E 0.96

     9/10E 0.28


     Avg. CIF Europe 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 LT New 710 785 568 874 980 963 690 YoY 10.1% 10.6% -27.7% 54.0% 12.1% -1.7% -28.4% Old 710 785 568 785 808 857 690 ?? 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 21.4% 12.5% 0.0%

     Pulp outlook to drive results and support Fibria deleveraging

     We believe Pulp stocks should react positively to announcements of additional pulp price increases. Operating results to be reported in the coming quarters could also show the effect of tight global supply-demand. Net debt still represents 39% of Fibria??s EV, which should allow the stock to appreciate without significant multiple expansion. We estimate that Fibria??s cash balance that added to 2010-11E FCF represents 176% of debt due in the period, suggesting that the company??s high leverage is manageable.

     Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates

     Key risk to our view is weaker-than-expected pulp demand

     Risks include weaker-than-expected Chinese pulp demand, a rapid restart of idle mills in Canada and Europe, and Brazilian currency appreciation.

     Marcelo Aguiar +55(11)3371-0771 | marcelo.aguiar@gs.com Goldman Sachs Brasil Bco M??lt S.A. Pedro Grimaldi +55(11)3371-0743 | pedro.grimaldi@gs.com Goldman Sachs Brasil Bco M??lt S.A.

     The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or go to

    www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

     The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

     Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Strong momentum building for pulp prices on supply constraints; Buy Suzano and Fibria

     In our view, pulp prices are at an early stage of a potential ??super-cycle?? which is not reflected in current stock prices. In addition, our checks indicate that investors still have low exposure to pulp stocks. We upgrade Fibria and Suzano to Buy and recommend that investors overweight both stocks. We believe pulp stocks present the most appealing investment case, high potential upside, and lowest multiples in our LatAm natural resources universe. Suzano is our new top pick among Latam Natural Resources stocks based on its significant discount to Fibria.

     In our view, Fibria could capture most of the flow from global investors that want to increase exposure to the sector, despite Fibria??s current premium to Suzano of 46% based on 2011E EV/EBITDA. Fibria has higher exposure to pulp (95% EBITDA vs. 70% for Suzano), a single class of stock with listed ADRs, and a more profitable growth pipeline. Global market pulp supply-demand has been very tight since September 2009 and is getting tighter with recent developments in Chile and Finland that could remove 14% of supply for the next couple months. We expect the global market pulp sector to remain tight for longer as (1) paper demand is recovering from trough levels in developed markets (US and Europe); (2) significant new paper machine capacity is expected to start up in China during 2010-2012, and (3) there is a lack of new market pulp capacity coming on stream until 2013. We raise our year-end 2010 and 2011 eucalyptus pulp price (BEKP) forecasts to US$950/ton and US$990/ton from US$840/ton (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Forecasts for eucalyptus pulp price (BEKP) delivered in Europe

     Average prices (US$/ton), unless otherwise stated

     1,080 980 CIF price US$/ton 880 780



     680 580 480 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E

     New Year-Avg. % YoY Year-End % YoY Old Year-Avg. % YoY Year-End % YoY

     2007 710 +10.1% 780 +14.7% 710 +10.1% 780 +14.7%

     2008 785 +10.6% 600 -23.1% 785 +10.6% 600 -23.1%

     2009 568 -27.7% 700 +16.7% 568 -27.7% 700 +16.7%

     2010E 874 +54.0% 950 +35.7% 785 +38.3% 840 +20.0%

     2011E 980 +12.1% 990 +4.2% 808 +2.9% 840 +0.0%

     2012E 963 -1.7% 910 -8.1% 857 +6.1% 880 +4.8%

     LT 690 -28.4% 690 -24.2% 690 -19.5% 690 -21.6%

     Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

     There are not many alternatives to Fibria for investors to gain exposure to the pulp cycle. It is the largest and most liquid pulp stock globally. In our view, both Fibria and Suzano are inexpensive based on 2011E EV/EBITDA with respective discounts of 33% and 43% to their historical averages of 9.0X and 7.3X. We view both stocks as attractive based on DCF methodology as Fibria trades at 56% of DCF value and Suzano at 54%. Exhibit 2 is a summary of Goldman Sachs?? global pulp and paper valuation comps. Important to note that Brazilian pulp and paper companies have been trading through the past few years at a premium to international peers on the back of strong growth outlook and higher profitability. Fibria and Suzano look inexpensive based on 2011E EV/EBITDA,

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2

     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     trading in line, and at 34% discount to global average, respectively. In our view, the positive scenario for pulp prices will lead the valuation gap to widen.

     Exhibit 2: Global pulp and forest products valuation comps

     Share values as of March 15, 2010

     Ticker Rating 12-month price target Potential upside / downside Stock price EV/EBITDA 2010E 2011E P/E 2010E 2011E Dvd Yield 2010E 2011E Net debt / 2010E 2011E FCF yield 2010E 2011E


     FBR FIBR3.SA Suzano SUZB5.SA Latam Average Europe Average North America Average Global Average

     Buy Buy Buy

     34.50 R$63.90 R$36.50

     61% 72% 70% 68% 39% 10% 35%

     21.40 R$37.20 R$21.45

     8.9 x 8.9 x 5.6 x 7.8 x 9.2 x 6.0 x 8.4 x

     6.0 x 6.0 x 4.1 x 5.4 x 6.5 x 5.4 x 6.2 x

     58.4 x 58.4 x 9.1 x 42.0 x 14.6 x 20.4 x 22.6 x

     14.7 x 14.7 x 5.4 x 11.6 x 11.7 x 16.7 x 13.9 x

     0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.3%

     0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2.1% 2.5%

     3.0 x 3.0 x 2.0 x 2.6 x 4.0 x 1.4 x 3.2 x

     1.8 x 1.8 x 0.0 x 1.2 x 2.7 x 1.1 x 2.3 x

     -7.4% -7.4% 19.3% 1.5% -6.9% 8.2% -2.0%

     -7.4% -7.4% 10.7% -1.4% -2.3% 7.1% 0.1%

     Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

     Exhibit 3 shows that our new estimates for Fibria and Suzano are well above market consensus, which in our view underestimates the upside potential for pulp prices. Exhibit 3: GS vs. consensus


     Revenues (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E EPS (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E 0.64 2.53 4.17 1.78 2.12 1.99 -64.3% 19.2% 109.6% 8,174 9,834 10,272 7,085 7,478 7,585 15.4% 31.5% 35.4% GS Consensus Delta


     Revenues (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E EPS (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E

     GS 4,595 5,563 5,978

     Consensus 4,194 4,274 4,588

     Delta 9.6% 30.1% 30.3%

     2.35 3.98 4.57

     1.68 1.98 2.10

     39.3% 101.6% 117.2%

     EBITDA (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E 3,098 4,255 4,474 2,870 3,096 3,176 8.0% 37.4% 40.9%

     EBITDA (R$) 2010E 2011E 2012E 1,757 2,414 2,664 1,392 1,486 1,591 26.2% 62.4% 67.5%

     Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.

     Six factors pointing to a potential pulp price ??super-cycle??

     We estimate that hardwood pulp prices could be close to the US$1,000 per ton mark by 2011, finally matching the peak achieved back in 1995 again. We believe prices should remain at a high level until significant pulp capacity starts up, which is only expected from 2013 onwards. In our view, the pulp supply-demand outlook will be so tight that pulp prices should drive paper prices and not the opposite. We forecast that the global pulp sector will be in a deficit of 1.8 mn tons in 2010-12, requiring the restart of old and high-cost pulp mills that are currently idle.

     (1) Lack of pulp capacity additions in 2010-2012

     The recent financial crisis combined with several years of underinvestment/low returns in the global pulp sector has resulted in very limited new capacity coming onstream. The pulp consultancy Hawkins Wright estimates that 2.2 mn tons will start up during 2010-2012,

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     which represents growth of 1.4% pa and only 4.3% of 2009 global market pulp capacity. Note that there is no pulp mill/machine expected to start up in South America, the region with the strongest growth in the last 10 years and the lowest cash production cost globally. Based on our

    analysis, additional market pulp demand in the period could be 4.0 mn tons, if we assume that global market pulp demand grows at 0.75X global real GDP (3.8% pa). This is conservative since global market pulp demand has grown at 0.88X global GDP since 2000. As a result, we expect the global pulp market could therefore be in a deficit of 1.8mn tons in 2010E-2012E (4.7% of 2009E global apparent demand). This would keep the global shipment to capacity ratio at a sustainable level above 90% for a long period, giving strong pricing power to pulp producers. Exhibit 4: Expected pulp capacity expansions in 2010-2012

     Capacities in ktons per year

     Company Altri UPM-Kymmene ENCE Portucel Rottneros Suzano Fibria CMPC Lee & Man, Phoenix, Mondi, Faruki APP, APRIL, PT Tel Donghae Stora, Botnia and Sodra Tembec AV Nackawic, Smurfit, Pictou, P&W CMPC APP, APRIL, PT Tel Donghae Arauco CMPC APP, APRIL, PT Tel Donghae Mackenzie, Marathon, Elk falls, Harmac, Crofton, Pictou IP, Smurfit-stone, Domtar, Boise, P&W Stora, Botnia, Sodra, Rottneros Pols and Tembec Hunan Tiger IP, Smurfit-stone, Domtar, Boise, P&W Stora, Botnia, Sodra, Rottneros Stora, Botnia and Sodra CMPC, Arauco TOTAL Project Celbi & Celtejo Fray Bentos Navia Setubal Miranda Mucuri Jacarei, Tres Lagoas Santa Fe Santa Fe Valdivia, Itata Santa Fe Country Portugal Uruguay Spain Portugal Brazil Brazil Chile Indonesia, China, Vietnam Korea Nordic Europe Canada, USA Chile Indonesia, China, Vietnam Korea Chile Chile Indonesia, China, Vietnam Korea Canada USA Nordic Europe China USA Nordic Nordic Chile Capacity 140 30 120 (165) 0 Pulp grade BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BHKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP BSKP Start up date 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

     0 600 120 30 550 15 (90) (30) (50) 30 330 (165) 60

     200 40 (95) (25) 80 40 45 10 270 10




     Source: Hawkins Wright and Goldman Sachs Research.

     (2) Amount of idle pulp capacity will not be enough to bring global pulp market into balance

     Currently, there are nine pulp mills that remain idle, of which 1.1mtpa are white kraft pulp (softwood or hardwood pulp) as shown in Exhibit 5. Even if all this capacity restarts, it would not be enough to cover the expected deficit of 1.8 mn tons during 2010-2012. In additional, for some of these mills to restart, new funding could be needed and they would have to restore their wood supply, which could be very challenging, in our view.

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Exhibit 5: List of idle pulp mills

     Pulp mills that remain idle represent 2.7% of global market pulp capacity (in ktons)

     Company Fraser Papers M-Real Catalyst Buchanan Tembec Buchanan Baikalsky Baikalsky Kertas Nusantara Total Mill Thurso Alizay Crofton Terrace Bay Chetwynd Terrace Bay Lake Baikal Lake Baikal Mangkajang Country Canada France Canada Canada Canada Canada Russia Russia Indonesia Capacity 125 70 90 380 220 125 100 120 150 Grade BHKP BHKP BSKP BSKP BCTMP BHKP UKP BSKP BHKP Start up date Q2-2009 Q2-2009 Q1-2009 Q1-2009 Q1-2009 Q4-2008 Q4-2008 Q4-2008 Q4-2008


     Source: Hawkins Wright.

     (3) Global inventories are very low across the whole supply chain

     Global pulp inventories are well below their normalized levels even after considering that pulp shipments to North America and Europe remain low as paper demand in these regions is rebounding slowly from its trough after the global financial crisis. Our industry contacts in China state that pulp inventories are close to normalized levels. We estimate that overproduction of 0.9 mn tons would be needed to bring all these inventories back to normalized levels. Exhibits 6-9 show global producers?? inventories (PPPC), European port inventories (Europulp), and consumers?? inventories in Europe (Utipulp). Exhibit 6: Global pulp inventories at 30 days of supply

     Global pulp inventories in days of supply

     Exhibit 7: European producers?? pulp inventories at 24 days in February

     Global pulp inventories in days of consumption


     55 50 Days of Supply

     Days of consumption

     55 50 45 +1std = 40 40 35 Avg = 32 30 25

     45 40 35 30 25 20 Oct-04 Nov-01 May-05 Dec-05 Sep-00 Jun-02 Jan-03 Jul-06 Feb-07 Sep-07 Nov-08 Jun-09 Aug-03 Mar-04 Jan-10 Apr-01 Apr-08 -1 std = 26 + 1 std = 39 Avg. = 32

     -1std = 24 20 15 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Feb-10

     Source: PPPC.

     Source: Europulp.

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Exhibit 8: Pulp inventories of European consumers at 23 days of supply

     Global pulp inventories in days of supply


     Exhibit 9: Required additional supply of 904 ktons of pulp to restore normalized levels of inventories

     +1 Std: 34 35


     Days 30 Avg: 29

     Current (days) as of Jan '10

     Normalized (days)

     Required over supply (ktons)

     25 -1 Std: 25 20 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

     Producers European ports European consumers Total

     30 22 23 -

     32 32 29 -

     344 332 228 904

     Source: Utipulp.

     Source: PPPC, Europulp, Utipulp.

     (4) New paper machines starting up in China during 2010-2011 should add significant capacity

     RISI forecasts that around 4.5 mtpa of new uncoated, coated and tissue machines will start-up in China during 2010-11. This additional paper capacity could increase Chinese pulp demand by 3.3 mn tons. This outlook increases our confidence in the long-term global pulp supply-demand balance and could lead the sector to be tighter than expected mainly in 2011-12. There is low visibility regarding pulp supply for Chinese paper machines, but as most are new machines, they will most likely require high quality fiber, which is not produced in China. Exhibit 10: Chinese expected additional paper capacity

     Capacities in ktons/year

     Grade Coated Uncoated Tissue Total Capacity in 2009 7,063 14,547 5,947 27,557 Capacity Addition 2010 758 1,092 450 2,300 2011 1,820 151 286 2,256 Capacity in 2011 9,641 15,789 6,683 32,113

     Source: RISI.

     (5) Paper demand bottomed in US and Europe

     China is the main growth market for pulp, but Europe and US remain the largest markets and represented 35% and 18% of 2009 pulp demand, respectively. Exhibits 11-12 show that fine paper shipments in US and Europe already bottomed and are slowly recovering after a decrease of 21% and 22% from peak pre-crisis levels. Our Goldman Sachs Paper and

    Forest product equity analyst Rick Skidmore forecasts US fine paper (coated and uncoated paper) demand to increase 0.4%pa in 2010-2012 and Goldman Sachs Paper and Packaging equity analyst Eshan Toorabally expects Europe fine paper demand to increase 4.6% pa. Tissue, another important driver for pulp demand, should continue to perform well in US and Europe. The return of traditional clients will reduce pulp availability for China, which should help push up prices globally.

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Exhibit 11: North American fine paper demand

     Monthly North American P&W paper demand

     24,000 23,250 22,500 ktons 21,750 21,000 20,250 19,500 18,750 18,000 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 (20.0%) yoy change % 0.0% P&W Shipments 5.0%

     Exhibit 12: European fine paper demand

     Monthly European P&W paper demand

     57,500 55,000 52,500 ktons yoy change (%) P&W Shipments 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% (2.5%) (5.0%) (7.5%) 47,500 45,000 %

     (5.0%) %



     (10.0%) (12.5%) (15.0%)


     42,500 40,000 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

     (17.5%) (20.0%)

     Source: AFPA.

     Source: Cepiprint, Cepifine.

     (6) Exogenous events should continue to reduce pulp supply

     In recent years, a series of events have impacted pulp supply, notably storms in Sweden, a warm winter in Canada, floods in southern United States, and paper workers?? strike in Finland. Such events are unpredictable but have been happening more frequently in recent years and have a more significant impact when supply-demand is very tight, in our view. The most recent events are the Chilean earthquake and Finnish stevedores strike, which have removed 7.3 mn tons per year of capacity or 14% of global pulp market supply in the short term. Chile represents 15% of China pulp imports and there is currently no supply available to substitute Chile exports. Chilean pulp mills declared force majeure on their operations and are currently assessing the impact of the earthquake on their mills. Pulp mills are very complex industrial facilities. For instance, new mills tend to take 12-18 months to ramp

    up and there are only a couple of producers globally that could lead the evaluation process. Ramp-up is therefore likely to take more than two months. The status of infrastructure affecting pulp mills and ports such as roads, railways, water supply and energy is also unclear post the earthquake. We estimate that global pulp producers?? inventories could fall to 27 days if Chilean pulp mills take four months to return progressively to a normalized production level. Exhibit 13 lists the pulp mills that are currently idle due to the earthquake. Exhibit 13: Currently idle pulp mills in Chile

     Capacities in ktons/year

     Mill Arauco Lincanten Arauco Constitucion Arauco Nueva Aldea Arauco Arauco Arauco Valdivia CMPC Santa Fe CMPC Pacifico CMPC Laja Total Grade Softwood Hardwood Unbleached kraft Softwood Hardwood Softwood Hardwood Softwood Hardwood Hardwood Softwood Softwood Market Capacity 115 40 360 430 430 515 285 390 160 1,060 510 250 4,545

     Source: RISI.

     Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research


     March 17, 2010

     Brazil: Paper & Forest Products

     Weaker-than-expected pulp demand is the key risk

     In our opinion, global pulp demand constitutes the key risk to our call as visibility is very clear on the supply side. Pulp prices should reach a level in 2011 that would lead most inefficient non-integrated paper machines to shut down in Europe/US and could point to the peak of the cycle. We do not believe the recent sharp increase in pulp prices will have a significant impact on paper production in US and Europe in the short term despite the historically high pulp to paper price ratios as seen in Exhibits 14-15. In our view, paper producers will first try to pass through the impact of higher pulp prices to customers before they shut down some of their paper machines considering that:


     US and European fine paper demand is recovering from a trough level which is 21% and 22% below the pre-crisis level; and Paper producers are implementing paper price increase (two European producers have announced a 15% increase for uncoated paper from April 15). Exhibit 15: BHKP-to-uncoated paper price ratio

     0.75 0.70

     Exhibit 14: BHKP-to-coated paper price ratio

     0.9 0.9 +1 std: 0.76



     0.8 0.8 0.7

     +1 std: 0.66 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04

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