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Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast China

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Simulation on the dynamics of forest area changes in Northeast Chinaon,of,in,the,area,China

    Simulation on the dynamics of forest area

    changes in Northeast China

    J.Geogr.Sci.2010,20(4):495509

    D0I:1O.1007Is11442.010-0495.0

    @20lOScienceChinaPressSpringerVerlag

    Simulationonthedynamicsofforestareachanges

    inNortheastChina

    DENGXiangzheng'..,

    JIANGQun'ou',

    ZHANJinyan,HEShujin',LINYingzhi'

    1.InstituteofGeographicandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China; 2.CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,CAS,Beijing100101,China;

    3.GraduateUniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing,100049,China; 4.StateKeyLaboratoryofWaterEnvironmentSimulation,SchoolofEnvironment,BeijingNormalUniversity

    Beijing100875,China

    Abstract:ThereisplentyofforestsinNortheastChinawhichcontributesaIottothe conservationofwaterandlandresources,producestimberproducts,andprovideshabitats forahugenumberofwildanimalsandplants.Withchangesofsocio

    economicfactorsaswell

    asthegeophysicaIconditions.therearedramaticchangesonthespatiaJpatternsofforest area.Inthissense.itisofgreatsignificancetoshedlightonthedynamicsofforestarea changestofindtheunderliningreasonsforshapingthechangingpatternsofforestareain NortheastChina.ToexplorethedynamicsofforestareachangeinNortheastChina.an econometricmodeIisdevelopedwhichiscomposedofthreeequationsidentifyingforestry production.conversionfrOmopenforesttoclosedforestandconversionfrOmotherIanduses toclosedforestsoastoexploretheImpactsontheforestareachangesfrOmdemographic.

    sociaI,economic,Iocationandgeophysicalfactors.Onthisbasis,weemploytheDynamicsof LandSystemfDLS)modeJtosimulateJand-useconversionsbetweenforestareaand non-forestcoverandtheIand-usecOnversiOnSwithinthesub-classesofforestareaforthe period2000-2020underbusinessasusualscenario.environmentaIprotectionscenarioand economicgrowthscenario.Thesimulationresultsshowthatforestareawillexpand continuouslyandthereexistvariouskindsofchangingpatternsforthesub-classesofforest area.forexample.closedforestwillexpandcontinuouslyandopenforestandshrubwill decreaseaIittlebit.whileareaofotherforestwilIkeepintact.Theresearchresultsprovide meaninqfuldecision

    makinginformationforconservingandexploitingtheforestresources

    andmakingouttheplanningforforestryproductionjntheNortheastChinaregion. Keywords:forestarea;forestryproduction;econometricmodel;dynamicsoflandsystem;NortheastChina

    1Introduction

    Withtheeconomicdevelopmentandpopulationgrowth,quantitiesofforestareahavebeen Received:200912.24Accepted:2OlO.02O2

    Foundation:NationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina.No.7082l140353;No.70873l18:Nationa1KeyTechnologyR&D

    Program.No2oo6BAC08B03:No.2OO6BAC08B06;CASKnowledgeInnovationProgram,No.KZCX2.YL3261:

    No.KZCX2.YW305.2:No.KSCX1YL09.04

    Author:DengXiangzheng(1971-),Ph.D,specializedindynamicsandconsequencesoflandsystems,regionalenvironmental

    change.Email:dengxzccap@igsnrr.ac.cn

    ,^n^n^,.scichina.comWWW.springerlink.com

    496JournalofGeographicalSciences

    convertedtocultivatedlandorother1andcovers(Chen,1995;Geeta1.,2005;Wangeta1., 2004).Forestareachangeshavemostsignificantimpactonecosystemandclimates. Therefore,monitoringthechangesoftheforestareaandcanopystructurethroughtimeis

necessary,anditisimportantformanyapplications,suchasdecisionmaking(Zimbleeta1.,

    2003),forestplanningandmanagement(Sironeneta1.,2001),climatechangestudies (NuutinenandKellom/iki,2001:Justiceeta1.,2001:Matala,2005),andwildlifehabitat (CoopsandCatling,1997).Thereareplentyofmethodologiestomonitorthechangerate, conversiondirectionandintensityofforestarea.andthemostcommononeisusingthe remotesensingimages.Alargenumberofexpertsandscholarshaveusedtheremote sensingimagesinterpretationtomonitortheregionallandchanges(Geeta1..2005;Liuet a1.,2003).However,thesestudiescanonlygetthelandchangesinhistory,butcannotobtain the1andusesinfuturerDeng.2008a).Soweneedtodevelopamodeltosimulatetheforest areaspatialdistributioninanytimebasedonthelanduseinformationinthepastperiod. NortheastChina,animportantproductionbasefortimberandforestrybyproductsin

    China.isalsothewaterconservationareaforessentialrivers--HeilongRiverandSonghua Rive卜一aswellastheecologicalbarrierofSaniiangPlain.SongnenPlainandHulunBuir Grassland.andbearstheimportantsignificancetothemaintenanceoftheregional ecologica1safetyandsocioeconomicdevelopment(Daia1.,2006;Yuan,2007;Chen,

    2006;Dengeta1..2006).Aflerhalfacenturyofexploitation,forestareainNortheastChina regionhasshrunkdramatically,theagestructureofforestshastendedtobemonotonousand iuvenile,andtheforestresourcessuitableforexploitationdecreasegradually.Accordingto thenationalsurveyofforestresources.matureforestareareducedby49.0%intheperiod 19811988.theninthenext10years.0.6lmillionhaofforestareawillfurtherdisappear, accountingforabout60.O%Ofthetotalmatureforestareaofthewholecountry(Xiaoeta1., 2002).Therefore,protectionofforestqualityhasbeenthesignificantchallengeforthe environmentalconservationandecologicalengineeringconstruction,whichwouldrestrict thedevelopmentoflocalforestryproductionseriously(Geeta1..2000,. Asisknown,forestareachangesarecloselyrelatedtomanyfactorssuchaseconomic growth,socialdevelopmentandthechangesofgeophysicalconditions(Zhuela1.,2007; Zhangeta1.,2006;Wangeta1.,2007).Loggingoutofplan,forestfire,extremeweather eventsanddeforestationallpromotetheshrinkageofforestareatosomeextent.Although NortheastChinaisthepilotregionfortheGrainforGreenProject,LoggingBanProject,and otherecologicalrestorationprojectshaveachievedsuccesstosomeextent,theshrinking

    trendsofforestareaandforestdegradationstillexist(Wangeta1.,2004;Zhaoeta1.,2006; Sheneta1.,2006;Pengeta1.,2007).Inaddition,forestareachangesinNortheastChina refertonotonlyconversionsbetweenforestareaandotherlanduses,butalsothe conversionsamongthesubclassesofforestsconsistingofclosedforest,shrub,openforest andotherforest(Zhangeta1.,2003;Chen,1993;GeandDai,2005),whichhavedrawn moreandmoreattentionsfromthescholarsaswellasthedecisionmakers.Therefore.itis

    ofsignificancetoexplorethedynamicsandspatialpatternsofforestareachangesinthe futureforimprovingthemanagementofthe

    possibleeffectsofdeforestationattheregional

    2Dataprocessing

    forestareaandunderstandingthecausesand

    levelandevenfortheentireChina.

    Beforebuildingtheeconometricmodeltoexplorethedynamicsofforestareachangesinthe DENGXiangzhengeta1.:SimulationonthedynamicsofforestareachangesinNortheastChina497

    NortheastChinaregion,detailedinformationneedstobegatheredandintegrated.Thefirst stepistobuildadatabasewhichincludesrelevantdatarelatedtotheinfluencingforcesand datatodescribethechangesoflandusesfrom1988to2005toprovideparametersforthe econometricmode1.Parametersfortheeconometricmodelcanbegenericallycategorized intothreecategories:landuseinformation,geophysicalvariablesandsocioeconomic

    variablesfTable1).

    2.1Iand.usedata

    LandusedataisderivedfromtheDataCenteroftheChineseAcademyofSciences,which iscomposedofsixkindsoflandusecategories:cultivatedland,forestarea,grassland,water area.builtupareaandunusedland.Inthisstudy,theLandsatThematicMapper(TM)and/or Table1VariablesforexploringthedynamicsofforestareachangesinNortheastChina DefinitionofvariablesVariables

    Populationdensity

    Agriculturalpopulationpropo~ion,olleperiodlaggedterm

    GDP

Averageelevation

    Quadratictermofaverageelevation

    Averageterrainslope

    Quadratictermofaverageterrainslope

    Soilorganicmatter

    Annualprecipitation

    Quadratictermofannualprecipitation

    Annualtemperature

    Distancetotheprovincialcapital

    Distancetothenearestportcity

    Distancetothenearestroad

    DistancetOthenearestwaterarea

    Grossoutputvalueofforestryindustry

    Forestryproduction

    Forestryproductpriceindex

    Whetherthecountywiththenaturalreservearea?l=yes,otherwise0 Whetherthecountywithmajorgrainproduction?1=yes,otherwise0 Whetherthecountyinvolvedinthestateownedforestprotectionplanandnurseryfinancial systemregulation?l=yes,otherwise0

    Areaofotherlandusecategoriesconvertedintoclosedforest Areaofopenforest

    WhetherthecountyhasimplementedtheLoggingBanProject?1=yes,otherwise0

    WhetherthecountyhasimplementedtheGrainforGreenProject?1=yes,otherwise0

    Forestrycoveragerate

    popden

    ap

    gdp

    dem

    dem2

    slope

slope2

    0rgante

    p

    pa2

    m

    d2pvcp

    d2pon

    road

    d2water

    prod

    value

    fpark

    gram

    mng

    cvother21

    Zd22

    tbp

    

    fomover

    Theland

    usedatain1988,1995,2000and2005arederivedfromDataCenteroftheChineseAcademyofSciences;The

    oneperiodlaggedtermsaretheaveragevaluesofthechosenvariablesforthelastthreeyears. 498JournalofGeographicalSciences

    EnhancedThematicMapper(ETM)remotesensingdataofthelate1980sandlate1990sare chosenandusedasthebasicinformationgiventhattheapplicationofsatelliteremote sensingprovestobeagoodchoicefordetectingandmonitoringforestareachanges. LandsatTM/ETMimagesin1988.1995.2000and2005wereinterpretedatascaleof 1:100,000andtheoverallinterpretationaccuracyoftheland.usecategoriesreached92.7% byfieldsurveyandrandomsamplingcheckconductedbytheDataCenteroftheChinese

    AcademyofSciences(CAS)(Liueta1.,2003;Dengeta1.,2008a,2008b).Inorderto identifythespatialvariabilityofforestquality.forestareaisfurtherdeclassifiedintofour kinds:closedforest,openforest,shrubandotherforest.Closedforestisdefinedasnaturalor man.madeforestwithacanopycoverofover30%.Openforestreferstolandcoveredby treeswithacanopycoverof10%-30%.Shrubislandcoveredbytreeslessthan2mhigh andwithacanopycoverofover40%.Otherforestreferstolandcoveredbyteagarden.

    orchid,and/ornon.grownupforest(Xueta1.,2004).

    2.2Geophysicaldata

    Geophysicaldatalncludemeasurementsonclimaticchange,lnformationonterrainslope, informationonsoilpropertyvariability,andsoon.Themeteorologicaldata,consistingof annualtemperatureandannualprecipitation,areacquiredfromChinaMeteorological Bureau,andareinterpolatedintothe1kmx1kmgridpixeldataaccordingtotheKriging algorithm(Ericeta1.,2001).Informationontheterrainslopeandtheplainareaproportion arederivedfromDEMdataatascaleof1:250,000coveringtheentireNortheastChina. InformationonthesoilpropertycomesfromthenationalsoilsurveyofChina,andisfinally interpretedinto1kmxlkmgridpixeldatausingtheKrigingmethod.

    Locationdataaretomeasurethedistancetothenearestexpressway,thenearestprovincial capital,thenearestwaterareaandthenearestportcity,andthesemeasurementsare calculatedbyusingmeasuringtoolsbasedontheroadnetwork,provincialcapitalmap, waterareamapandtheportcitymaps,whicharederivedfromthetopographicmapata scaleof1:250,000fortheNortheastChinaregion.

    2.3Socio.economicdata

    Socio.economicdatasetconsistsofvariablessuchaspopulationdensity.agricultura1 production,agriculturalpopulationproportion,GDEtimberproduction,forestproductprice index,grossoutputvalueofforestryproduction,andthosebinaryvalues,e.g.,ifitisamajor grainproductionarea,ifitisanaturalreserve.andsoon.Thosecontinuousdata.including populationdensity,agriculturalpopulationproportionandGDEarederivedfromprovincial statistics.ForestryproductiondataarederivedfromtheforestryproductsyearbookofChina. ThepolicyvariablesinvolvedinthisstudyincludetheinvolvementofGrainforGreen ProjectandLoggingBanProjectwhichhavebeenreleasedatthenationalleve1.Logging

    BanProjectisputforwardafterthedevastatingfloodinthesummerof1998.andis designedtoachievetherestorativedevelopmentofforest,controlwaterandsoillossand preserveecologicalenvironment(StateNaturalProtectionProject.1998).GrainforGreen Pro.jectisimplementedin1999whichprotectstheecologicalenvironmentinNortheast Chinatosomeextent(Uchidaeta1.,2005).

    DENGXiangzhengeta1.:SimulationonthedynamicsofforestareachangesinNortheastChina499

    3Scenariodesignandpolicyvariables

    3.1Scenariodesign

    Scenarioanalysisisofnecessityforpredictingtheforestareachangesinthefuture,whichis donebasedontheexploreddynamicsforforestareachanges.Forthegeophysicalconditions, unlesssomegeologicaleventsoccur,e.g.1andforms,elevation,andterrainslopewillbekept stableforarelativeshorttime.Althoughtemperatureandprecipitationalwayschange amongvariousyears.theextentoftheirchangesislimitedatamarginallevelforarelative shorttime,e.g.,lessthan30yearsinthisstudy.Therefore.thisstudyassumesthatthe geophysicalconditionsoftheNortheastChinaregionwillkeepintact,orjustchangetoa smallextentwhichisnotenoughtoaffectdramaticallyforestareachangesintheperiodof 20002020.Geophysicaldatainthehistoricalperiodwillthenbeincludedintheprocessof predictionofthedynamicsofforestareachangesinNortheastChina.

    Accordingtothecharacteristicsof1andusesandregionalsocioeconomicdevelopments.

    threekindsofscenariosbaselineasusual(BU)scenario,economicgrowth(EG1scenario andenvironmentalprotectionfEP)scenarioaredesigned.BUscenarioisareferencecase

    depictingafuturestateofsocietyand/orenvironmentinwhichnonewenvironmenta1 protectionpoliciesoreconomicpoliciesareimplemented,andpopulationgrowthand economicexpansionwillcontinueinthesametrend.UnderEPscenario.anumberof effectivemeasurementswouldbetakentoprotectIocalenvironment.andthegrowthof populationandGDPwouldbemaintainedatalowerrate.UnderEGscenario.1oca1 economicgrowthisabovetheaveragelevelofthenation.andindustria1structureadjustment. policies,andtechnologyrevolutionwouldbetakentopromotetheexpansionsofpopulation andeconomy.

    Basedontheabovethreekindsofscenarios,thisstudypredictsthepopulationgrowthand GDPexpansionintheperiod20082020inNortheastChina(Figure1).UnderBUscenario,

    theannualpopulationbirthrate.mortalityrateandGDPexpansionaresetastheaverage valueofthefirstfiveyears.UnderEPscenario.theannua1populationgrowthandGDP expansionarelowerthanthatunderBUscenariobyanamountofastandarddeviation,and mortalityrateisconsistentwiththatunderBUscenario.UnderEGscenario,thepopulation birthrateandGDPexpansionarehigherthanthoseofBUscenariobyanamountofa standarddeviation,andmortalityrateisalsoconsistentwiththatofBUscenario. 0

    0

    

    Buscenario?-EGscenarioEPscenario

    (a)Population

    Year

    ——

    BUscenario--EGscenarioEPscenario

    (b)GDP

    Figure1PopulationgrowthandGDPexpansionfortheperiodbetween1988and2020inNortheastChina

    Note:GDPatconstantprices(theyear2000)

    JournalofGeographicalSciences

    3.2Ecologicalprojects

    TheecologicalprojectsincludingGrainforGreenProjectandLoggingBanProjectareof importanceforreducingtheloggingofthelocalforestsaswellasspurringtheexpansionof forestareainNortheastChina.Thisstudyassumesthatbothoftheecologicalprojects continuetobeimplementedinNortheastChinaintheperiod20002020.addingsubsidiesof

    70yuanpermufortheeffortsofconveningcultivatedlandbacktoforestareafromthe currentsubsidystandardof20yuanpermuannually,extendingthecompensationtoeight yearsfortheeffortstoconvertthecultivatedlandtoecologicalforest.tofiveyearsfor conveningtoeconomicforest,andtotwoyearsforconvertingtograssland.Atthesame

    time,thisstudyassumesthatLoggingBanProjectwillbeimplementedthrough2020and continuetoplayanimportantrolefortheconservationofforestcover.

    4Methodology

    4.1Explorationofthedynamicsofforestareachanges

    Wedevelopaneconometricmodeltoexplorethedynamicsofforestareachanges.Inthe econometricmodel,theforestareachangesareasexplainedvariablesandthedrivingfactors setasexplanatoryvariables.Theeconometricmodelforthedynamicsofforestareachanges inNortheastChinaarecomposedofthreeregressionequations,theprocessofforestry production(1),theconversionofopenfo?res

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