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Administrators Weekly Report Essential Services

By Marie Rodriguez,2014-06-26 22:22
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Administrators Weekly Report Essential Services ...

    ` Administrator’s Weekly Report

     Essential Services

    April 10-16, 2004

HIGHLIGHTS

-- The seven-day average (April 10-16) of peak electricity production was 3,634 MW.

-- Since May 2003, CPA has reinstated landline telephone service for 178,840 subscribers.

-- The Ministry of Oil met the Coalition Provisional Authority goal of 15 days of supply of fuel

    nationwide for kerosene.

I. Provide Electricity Services that Meet National Needs

    Improve generating capacity to 6,000 MW by June 1, 2004; Fully implement policy on allocation

    of electrical power; Publish draft of long term strategy; Minimize sabotage and improve security

? The seven-day average (April 10-16) peak electricity production was 3,634 MW, a decrease

    of 3 percent from the previous week. Spring maintenance continues, which is affecting

    output. On April 15, peak production hit a high for the week at 3,800 MW.

    Iraq Peak Output

    6000

    5500

    5000

    4500

    4000

    3500Megawatts

    3000

    1/16/04

    1/23/04Peak7 Day Av. 1/30/04

    2/6/04Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 16, 2004

     2/13/04

     2/20/04

    2/27/04

    3/5/04FOUO

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit 3/12/04

     3/19/04

    3/26/04

    4/2/04

    4/9/04

    4/16/04

    ? The seven-day average (April 10-16) total production of electrical energy was 75,971 MWh

    per day, a decrease of 5.8 percent from the previous week. The reason for the decline is

    continued scheduled maintenance On April 10, the total hours of electrical energy peaked at

    78,400 MWh.

    Iraq Total Megawatts Hours

    110000

    100000

    90000

    80000

    70000

    60000Megawatt Hours50000

    1/16/04

    1/23/04MWHR's7 Day Av.

    Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 16, 2004 1/30/04

     2/6/04? This past week, an average of 350 MW (13 generators) of generating capacity was on forced

    2/13/04(unplanned) outage, and an average of 1,923 MW (27 generators) was on scheduled outage.

    Eight (400 Kv) and ten (132 Kv) transmission lines are currently out of service. No lines 2/20/04

    were returned to service; however, existing transmission capacity is sufficient to compensate 2/27/04for out-of service lines.

    3/5/04

    ? The following chart presents the daily electric power consumption broken down among the 3/12/04North, Central (including Baghdad), and South regions. During the reporting period, the 3/19/04North consumed an average of 823 MW per day or 24 percent of total power consumption.

    4500Per day, the Central region consumed 2,185 MW or 65 percent of the total, and the South 3/26/04consumed 359 MW or 11 percent of total electricity consumption during the past week. 40004/2/04

    Electricity Consumption35004/9/04

    4/16/043000

    2500

    2000

    1500Megawatts

    1000

    500

    0

    3/16/04

    NORTHCENTRALSOUTH3/18/04

    Source: Ministry of Electricity, Power Daily, April 16, 2004 3/20/04

     3/22/04

    3/24/04FOUO 2 3/26/04Prepared by the Information Management Unit 3/28/04 3/30/04

    4/1/04

    4/3/04

    4/5/04

    4/7/04

    4/9/04

    4/11/04

    4/13/04

    4/15/04

    Average Daily Electrical Power Distribution per Governorate as of 2004

    Note: Hours of Residential Service will temporarily decrease as more units are taken out of

    service for spring maintenance and temperatures increase.

    AVERAGE HOURS OF DahokELECTRICITY AVAILABLE TO 91 MWGOVERNORATE PER DAY 16 HrsOVER A 7 DAY PERIOD

    Arbil18 Hrs?8Hrs = RedNaynawa322 MWSulaymaniyah11 HrsTamim118 MW9 to 15 Hrs =Amber125 MW18 Hrs12 Hrs

    ?16 Hrs = GreenSalah Ad Din198 MW10 HrsDyalaNo Report = White84 MW12 Hrs

    Percent Change (7 Day)BaghdadAnbar1009 MW162 MW14 Hrs15 HrsWasitBabil86MWBaghdad-4.3%Karbala17 Hrs90 MW85 MW13 HrsDuhok2.1%23 HrsQadisiyahMisanNaynawa-4.3%56 MW47 MW13 Hrs17 HrsTamim-0.2%An NajafDhi QarSalah Ad Din1.5%82 MW91 MW16 Hrs18 HrsAnbar-1.7%

    Dyala-3.4%Basrah253 MWBabil-2.4%22 HrsMuthannaMuthanna49 MW10 HrsKarbala-1.3%38 MW16 HrsNajaf-2.4%

    Qadisiyah2.3%

    Wasit2.0%

    Muthanna1.4%

    Dhi Qar-4.6%Average Electrical Power Distribution per Governorate as ofMisan-5.1%

    15 April 2004Basrah3.9%

    Source: Ministry of Electricity

    LEGEND:

GREEN Greater than 16 hours of average daily power

    AMBER 8 to 16 hours of average daily power

    RED Less than 8 hours of average daily power

    WHITE No report

    FOUO 3

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit

II. Reconstruct Communications and Postal Systems

    Build Iraq’s First Responder Network (FRN); Establish independent regulatory agency;

    Upgrade Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company (ITPC) network for interoperability; Build

    transmission component data network for Iraq, including international gateways; Restructure

    ITPC and its business operations; Upgrade and modernize postal systems; Upgrade ITPC

    outside plant for increased subscriber capacity and use

? Since May 2003, CPA has reinstated landline telephone service for 178,840 subscribers.

    CPA continues to make progress in restoring service to customers, especially in Baghdad.

? The following paragraphs delineate the number of landline and cell phone subscribers in Iraq,

    and compare them to pre-war estimates. The chart below shows the number of active

    landline subscribers in April 2003, the current number of active landline subscribers, the

    number of landline subscribers reinstated post-conflict (since May 2003), and the number of

    formerly active landline subscribers who remain without service (excluding the three

    Northern governorates).

    Telephone Subscribers in Iraq

    500,000

    450,000

    400,000

    350,000

    300,000

    250,000

    200,000148000150,000141,800100,000

    50,000

    00NorthBaghdadSouth CentralSouth 148000Active (APR 03)Active subscribers (APR 04)Reinstated Post ConflictOut of service

    Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Minister of Communications 435000Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company [ITPC] 372,140

    ? The three new cell phone companies in Iraq (Asia Cell, Iraqna, and Atheer in the North, 178,840Central, and South respectively) continue to enroll new cell phone subscribers. Currently, in

    93979Mosul, Sulaymaniyah, and Kirkuk, there are 153,784 cell phone subscribers. In Baghdad,

    there are 135,000 cell phone subscribers; and in Basra, Al Kut, Amarah, Samawah, and

    Nasiriyah there are 45,083 cell phone subscribers.

    153000

    ? There are now 761,440 active landline telephone subscribers in Iraq, compared to 833,000 153000

    subscribers pre-war. The total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq, including the cell

    5200phone subscribers, is 1,095,307, which is 31.6 percent greater than the number of active

    landline subscribers pre-war. 0

    ? The penetration rate (the number of active landline telephone subscribers as a percentage of

    96500the population) is 2.94 percent (using an estimated population of 25.9 million).

     94500

    0

    FOUO 4 2000

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit

? The following chart shows the percentage of operational telephone subscribers compared to

    the number of active subscribers in April 2003. The percentage of active subscribers in

    Baghdad increased by three percentage points from last week.

    Percentage of Operational Telephone Subscribers (Baseline April 03)

    100%100%98%95%96%

    90%

    85%86%

    80%

    75%

    NorthBaghdadSouth CentralSouth

    % Operational (compared to APR 03 subscribers)

    Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Minister of Communications

    Iraqi Telephone and Postal Company [ITPC]

    III. Provide Food Security for all Iraqis Enhance capacity of Ministry of Agriculture; Assure supply of inputs; Strengthen research

    system; Ensure adequate stocks for Public Distribution System (PDS); Monitor food security;

    Hand over administration of system in the North; Initiate reform of rations basket;

    Environmental initiatives

? The following chart shows the percentage of estimated requirements of stocks for the 12

    public distribution goods that Iraqis receive under the PDS until the end of May. The

    percentage of estimated requirements are categorized into opening stocks (amount on hand),

    and scheduled arrivals for goods prior to July 1 procured under existing contracts from the 200.0%

    Oil for Food Program, the Ministry of Trade (MOT), and the World Food Program 180.0%(WFP). The PDS stocks in the following chart are calculated as a percentage of two months

    160.0%(April-May) estimated demand, plus a one-month buffer stock (CPA goal by May

    1). Having 100 percent of each commodity will ensure that the food rations are available 140.0%

    through May, including at least a one-month on hand buffer stock for each commodity. 120.0%

    100.0%PDS: APR - MAY Stocks as a Percentage of Requirements

    (plus One Month Buffer)80.0%

    60.0%

    40.0%

    20.0%

    0.0%

    National Wheat

    Opening StocksScheduled Arrivals Under Existing ContractsForeign Wheat

    New Procurements MOTNew Procurements WFP RiceSource: CPA Food Security Team Planned Arrivals MOT/CPA ProcurementOFF Unconfirmed ContractsPulses

    Ghee/OilFOUO 5

    SugarPrepared by the Information Management Unit

    Tea

    Milk

    Salt

    Infant Formula

    Weaning Cereals

    Soap

    Detergent

    Total

? Note: Oil for Food (OFF) unconfirmed contracts are those contracts for which a valid letter

    of credit exists but no shipping documentation has yet been received by the Oil for Food

    coordination center. As OFF contracts are fulfilled they are replaced by MOT and WFP

    procurement.

? CPA projects that no shortages will occur in the April and May rations given the new

    procurements of food basket commodities by both WFP and MOT, including accelerated

    delivery schedules for the commodities where stocks have been low. However, MOT faces

    problems in providing updated, accurate stock information on a weekly basis. These

    problems stem from difficult communications links between the governorates and Baghdad,

    as well as the need to upgrade inventory control procedures. CPA is addressing these

    challenges as part of its handover strategy.

? Pulses are expected to continue to decline because of the warming months ahead, making it

    more difficult to store them for extended periods. They will be replaced by tomato paste and

    canned cheese.

? The following chart shows the current PDS stocks and scheduled commodity arrivals as a

    percentage of total requirements from April until transition on July 1. The CPA goal is to

    provide sufficient ration stocks for July, plus a three-month buffer. On the graph below, 100

    percent of opening stocks in each commodity category indicates that this goal has been

    achieved. While substantial additional shipments of most food basket commodities have

    been procured, they are not shown as these shipments will arrive after July 1.

    PDS Stocks as a Percentage of Total Requirements from

    APR - JUL 1, 2004 (including 3 month buffer)

    200%

    180%

    160%

    140%

    120%

    100%

    80%

    60%

    40%

    20%

    0%

    National Wheat

    Opening StocksScheduled Arrivals Under Existing Contracts (OFF)Foreign WheatNew Procurements MOTNew Procurements WFP

    RicePlanned Arrivals MOT/CPA ProcurementOFF Unconfirmed Contracts

    PulsesSource: CPA Food Security Team

    Ghee/OilFOUO 6

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit Sugar

     Tea

    Milk

    Salt

    Infant Formula

    Weaning Cereals

    Soap

    Detergent

    Total

    ? Analysis of the food pipeline shows that, with the exception of tea, full rations are projected

    to be delivered this month. Tea will be cut to a half ration (100 grams per person), because

    tea shipments will arrive in late April -- too late to be included in this month’s rations. May

    tea rations are expected to again be at the usual 200 grams per person amount.

    ? The first version of a comprehensive and integrated Allocation Plan has been developed in a

    two-day working session involving officials of the Ministry of Trade (MOT) and WFP. This

    plan identifies the food allocation needs for all eighteen governorates, according to updated

    population figures and ration requirements. It creates three principal regions (North, Central,

    South) within Iraq and identifies which of the corridors (Iraqthrough Umm Qasr, Jordan,

    Syria, and Turkey) can be used to supply commodities for these regions. The flow of

    commodities is based on a strategy to build a three-month buffer stock in all governorates by

    the end of June, as well as on shipping and transportation factors. Procurement decisions

    now being taken by MOT will play a key role in ensuring that delivery schedules are met.

    ? The MOT is forming a two-track Logistics Unit Operations Center to manage the flow of

    commodities forecasted under the comprehensive Allocation Plan. Track one, the Rome

    Track, will focus on training MOT officials to ensure that commodities are shipped on time

    and according to specifications, arrive timely in the points of entry best suited for fulfilling

    the Allocation Plan, and meet all border requirements, as well as guarantee there is adequate

    accountability to ensure that losses and damage are maintained within an acceptable level.

    Track two, the Baghdad Track, will develop an action plan to ensure that the MOT facilities,

    support and other staff, equipment and technology are adequate, identified and operational

    within the next two months. One important element is the establishment of a simple

    communications and reporting network for all governorates, based on High Frequency radio

    transmissions and laptop computers that can transmit both voice and digital data.

    ? The MOT continues to work with the Ministry of Transportation to increase the wheat

    offloading capacity at Umm Qasr port. Options to increase capacity include repair of

    existing off-loading equipment, rental of additional off-loading equipment, and possible use

    of other ports to ensure recently-procured wheat enters the national food distribution system.

IV. Improve Quality and Access to Healthcare

    Develop health care organizations, management, and infrastructure; Train health care

    professionals; Secure system; Public health; Pharmaceuticals logistic support; Strategic

    communications

    ? The Ministry of Health (MOH) established an Operations Center (Ops Center) to coordinate,

    direct, and respond to health issues. The Ops Center is manned 24 hours a day during

    contingencies and has multiple telephone connections for hospitals in Baghdad and

    throughout the country. The Minister plans to maintain the Ops Center room in a stand-by

    status whenever there is not an active contingency.

    ? The Ministry remains well poised to respond to further healthcare needs resulting from

    terrorist attacks or combat action. They have over 2,700 units of blood on hand to distribute

    where needed and have repositioned medical supplies to Najaf and Fallujah to deal with the

    increased workload at those two locations.

    FOUO 7

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit

? The Ministry coordinated a 34 ambulance convoy, led by the Director General of Inspection,

    Dr. Adel Abdullah, to travel to Fallujah to bring supplies and evacuate injured patients to

    Baghdad hospitals for specialized care. The movement was coordinated through CPA and

    the Coalition Joint Task Force 7 (CJTF-7) to allow easier transit of coalition checkpoints.

    V. Reconstitute Oil Infrastructure

    Production/Exports; Product Supply; Security; Structural Reform

? The graph below shows the daily crude oil production in Iraq over the past nine months. The

    dashed black line is the current production target goal of 2.5 million barrels per day (MBPD).

    Crude Oil Production (Weekly Average)

    3.0

    2.5

    2.0

    1.5

    1.0

    Millions of Barrels per day

    0.5

    0.0

    Jun 10

    Jun 24Week EndingJul 9

    NorthSouthTotalProduction TargetJul 23 Aug 6Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil Aug 20 Sep 3 Sep 17 Oct 01

    ? For the week of April 10-16, the estimated average total crude oil production was 2.52 Oct 15

    MBPD (0.56 MBPD in the south and 1.96 MBPD in the north). The average crude oil export Oct 29

    Nov 12for the past 30 days was 1.689 MBPD. The average price received for crude oil exports was

    Nov 26approximately $26 per barrel.

    Dec 10 Dec 24 Jan 7 Jan 21

    Feb 4

    FOUO 8 Feb 18

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit Mar 3

    Mar 17

    Mar 31

    Apr 14

? The following table shows the four main fuels in Iraq (diesel, kerosene, liquefied petroleum

    gas [LPG], and gasoline), the estimated total national daily demand for each, and the

    percentage of fuel supply that is on hand (weekly average) out of total demand. Diesel

    supplies are high because the Defense Energy Support Center, which took over fuel imports

    from Kellogg, Brown and Root on April 1, is increasing its expected imports, mostly from

    Turkey, in order to build stocks to avert the risk of a diesel shortage. Their imports are

    averaging 7.598 million liters (ML) per day with a goal of 6.8 ML per day, even though

    Kuwaiti imports were shut down for four days due to convoy insecurity problems.

FUELS ESTIMATED DAILY AVERAGE DAILY % OF ESTIMATED DEMAND

    DEMAND ON HAND (O/H) ON HAND

    SUPPLY

    Diesel 18.5 million liters (ML) 23.23 ML 126 % Kerosene 6 million liters (ML) 4.072 ML 68 % LPG 4,500 metric tons 3,426 metric tons 80%

    Gasoline 19 million liters (ML) 17.523 ML 92%

    Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil

? The graph below shows the total daily supply (domestic production plus imports) for each of

    the four refined fuel products as a percentage of estimated domestic demand over the past six 250%months.

200%Production & Imports as % of Estimated Demand

    (Weekly Average)

    150%

    100%

    50%

    0%

    OctOctNovNovDecDecDecJanJanFebFebMarMarApr0822519317311428112510247Week Ending

    KeroseneGasolineLPGDiesel

    Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil

? Temperature has been rather mild recently, so demand for kerosene is higher than projected.

    In addition, production of refined products has shifted towards benzene and diesel in order to

    build stocks rapidly. However, as the weather gets hotter, CPA Oil will continue to monitor

    demand and adjust as required. Furthermore, as fewer people travel due to the increased

    level of instability, fuel (benzene and diesel) demand has decreased, resulting in rising stock

    levels.

    FOUO 9

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit

? The chart below shows the days of supply on hand on April 16 for each of the four main fuel

    products in Iraq. The CPA goal remains to have 15 days of supply (DOS) for each fuel on

    50hand nationwide. CPA met this target for kerosene.

     45

    40Days of Supply (DOS) of Fuel In Storage

    35

    30

    25

    20

    15Days

    10

    5

    0DieselKeroseneBenzeneLPG

    Fuels

    Source: CPA Senior Advisor to the Ministry of Oil

VI. Improve Quality and Access to Higher Education

    Oversee the basic administrative functions of higher education systems; Reform and reconstruct

    higher education institutions; Reintegrate the higher education institutions in the North with the

    rest of the country; Reintegrate Iraqi students, scholars, and scientists into the broader

    intellectual community; Launch a review and reform of the curriculum in all disciplines; Provide

    access to essential information

    ? US universities are increasing their assistance to Iraqi institutions of higher learning. Baylor

    has entered into a partnership with Dohuk University. Stony Brook University is working

    with Baghdad and Mosul Universities in Archeology and with Baghdad, Mosul, Basra, and

    Mustansiriyah Universities in Environmental Health. The University of Hawaii has a team at

    both Dohuk and Mosul working with their Colleges of Agriculture. The Mississippi

    Consortium for International Development, which includes Mississippi Valley State and

    Jackson State, are also at Mosul and Dohuk. Universities from both Europe and the US are

    working under the leadership of DePaul University with the Law Colleges at Basra, Baghdad

    and Sulaimani Universities. In addition, the University of Oklahoma is heading a team of

    universities in partnership with Salahaddin University in Erbil, Al Anbar, Babil and Basra

    Universities, and the University of Technology in Baghdad.

? The Lounsbery Foundation, which funds education in science and technology, has awarded a

    grant for a project entitled ―2004 Summer Faculty Development Seminars in Iraq. Courses

    in agro-business, forensic archeology, molecular biology, communication engineering,

    computer engineering, computer science, international economics, electric power engineering,

    environmental science, medicine, clinical teaching of nursing science, technologies and

    economics of downstream industries as related to oil and gas, physics, chemistry, and

    campaign politics will be taught in English by American professors.

    FOUO 10

    Prepared by the Information Management Unit

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