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Climate debt A primer

By Jesus Nelson,2014-06-18 00:03
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Climate debt A primer ...

    Briefing Paper 2

     TWN

    UN Climate Change Conference Email: twnet@po.jaring.my Website: www.twnside.org.sg 7 - 18 December 2009, Copenhagen Address: 131 Jalan Macalister, 10400 Penang, MALAYSIA Tel: 60-4-2266728/2266159 Fax: 60-4-2264505

    Carbon Markets and Financial Risk

    By Michelle Chan, Friends of the Earth, US

UNFCCC Annex I Parties’ negotiators may still be struggling to agree on major points of climate policy, but they are

    united in one goal: the establishment of a global carbon trading market. However, given the environmental ineffectiveness

    of carbon trading thus far, the quest to create a global market in carbon may instead only result in enriching "Wall 1Street" banks while posing new systemic financial risks. 1. Market risks from carbon trading

    1.1 Carbon trading is derivatives trading

Most carbon trading, although it is rarely described as so, is actually derivatives trading. Currently, most

    carbon, especially offsets, are sold as simple futures contracts (a type of derivative). These contracts are

    promises to deliver carbon allowances or credits in a certain quantity, at a certain price, at a specified date.

    Today’s carbon markets are small, but if the United States adopts carbon trading (on the scale envisioned by

    the climate legislation which passed the US House of representatives), carbon futures will become what

    Commodity Futures Trading Commissioner Bart Chilton called the biggest of any derivatives product.

    Chilton conservatively estimates that within a few years of being launched, the US carbon futures market 2could reach US$ 2 trillion in nominal value. 1.2 Derivatives are poorly regulated

As the global financial crisis has shown, derivatives are not well regulated, and regulations are practically

    non-existent at a global level. Currently, national and international policy makers are debating on how to

    reform derivatives markets, particularly the so-called "dark markets" in over-the-counter derivatives

    (unreported and regulated financial deals made between two parties, rather than standardized contracts

    traded on exchanges). However, these regulations are in flux, and traders are aggressively lobbying to insert

    as many exceptions and loopholes as possible into emerging rules.

It would be imprudent to promote the creation of a large new global derivatives market without creating a

    robust set of global financial regulations to match.

    1.3 General derivatives regulations are not enough to govern carbon

Even if derivatives in general were excellently governed, they would not be enough to govern carbon

    commodities. Unlike other commodities, carbon allowances have one single producer with no marginal

    cost of production, and can be banked indefinitely with no costs. This makes it difficult for regulators to

    determine whether the price of carbon is tied to “market fundamentals.” Emissions trading schemes are also

    supposedly designed so that the supply of allowances is supposed to contract, making market surveillance

    activities (e.g. monitoring whether prices are being artificially manipulated) more difficult.

     1 This briefing is summarized from two reports, Subprime Carbon?: Re-thinking the World's Largest New Derivatives Market, Friends of the Earth US, March 2009 at http://www.foe.org/pdf/SubprimeCarbonReport.pdf; and

    Smaller, Simpler and More Stable: Designing Carbon Markets for Environmental and Financial Integrity, September 2009

    at http://www.foe.org/sites/default/files/CarbonMarketsReport.pdf.

    2 http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/speechandtestimony/opachilton-14.pdf 1

    To make matters worse, policy makers around the world are designing carbon markets to be particularly complex, which makes them prone to gaming and even more difficult to regulate. For example, in the European Union (EU) free allowance give-aways and over-allocation have distorted carbon prices. In the US, policy makers are contemplating creating a "trigger price" for carbon (i.e. flooding the market with additional carbon if prices get too high), which provides additional opportunities for market manipulation and gaming.

    Ultimately, carbon markets are supposed to be established with an environmental objective, and must be regulated as such. General derivatives regulations, which are designed to prevent fraud and manipulation, are necessary but not sufficient.

    1.4 Conflicts of interest in the carbon market

    Conflicts of interest are widespread in the financial sector, and carbon is no exception.

    Conflicts of interest are particularly acute in the offset market, where project developers pay consultants to independently evaluate greenhouse gas reductions. If the verifier also offers project development consulting services, this replicates the conflicts of interest between accounting and management consulting in the Enron affair.

    Offset crediting agencies may also be subject to corruption and pressure to approve credits generously and quickly. For example, in 2008 an offsets trade association slammed the Clean Development Mechanism 3(CDM) Executive Board over “unacceptable delays.” As carbon markets grow, especially secondary

    markets, crediting agencies may not only be bullied by offset providers and regulated entities, but also by institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.

    Carbon markets are a politically generated and managed market with a compliance requirement (e.g. company compliance with greenhouse gas caps). It is precisely these politically generated and managed facets of carbon trading, as well as its compliance aspects, which can make carbon markets especially vulnerable to lobbying and regulatory capture. For carbon trading to be successful from environmental, financial, and governance perspectives, policy makers and market regulators must be particularly insulated from corruption and political influence. In light of the catastrophic regulatory failures that gave rise to the current financial crisis, it is naïve to believe that carbon trading will be immune to corruption and conflicts of interest.

    1.5 A market dominated by speculators

    As carbon markets mature, the size of secondary markets (where individual or re-packaged carbon is sold for the second, third, or twentieth time) will vastly overshadow the primary markets (where carbon is bought and sold for the first time). That is because Wall Street financiers are likely to end up dominating carbon markets, even though they do not actually need the credits or allowances.

    Some of these financial players will be traditional speculators, who want to make money by betting on whether the price of carbon will go up or down. Others will be “passive investors” such as pension funds which buy carbon and hoard it, hoping for -- and forcing -- the price to go up. If other commodities markets, such as oil and corn, are any guide, passive investors will probably end up owning about 40 percent of outstanding commodities contracts. This distorts markets and creates excessive speculation, while providing little benefit to companies seeking to comply with carbon caps.

     3 “Carbon Industry Group Slams UN’s CDM Market Over Delays,” Platt’s Emissions Daily, September 18, 2008.

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1.6 "Financial innovation" in the carbon markets

Another lesson learned from the financial crisis is that modern financial markets are sophisticated and

    creative. As carbon markets grow, Wall Street banks will not simply broker in plain carbon, but they will

    create complex new financial products based on carbon commodities. Even if policy makers adopt the most

    robust and best written derivatives regulation possible, "financial innovation" will likely outstrip the ability

    of regulators to keep up.

Already, financial engineers have developed carbon-backed securities (see box below), carbon index funds,

    carbon exchange traded funds, and other products for institutional investors such as pension funds and

    others. The proliferation of new financial products will drive more money into the carbon markets, while

    also spreading subprime carbon risks.

    Financial innovation in carbon markets

    In November 2008, banking giant Credit Suisse announced a securitized carbon deal that bundled together carbon credits from 25 offset projects at various stages of UN (CDM) approval, sourced from three countries

    and five project developers. These assets were then split into three portions representing different risk levels

    and sold to investors, a process known as securitization. Carbon-backed securities sound hauntingly close to

    mortgage-backed securities because they are indeed very similar in structure. Although the Credit Suisse deal

    was relatively modest, future deals could become bigger and more complex, bundling hundreds or thousands

    of carbon credits of mixed types and origins, perhaps enhanced with agreements to swap more risky carbon

    credits for safer assets (such as government-issued emissions allowances) as “insurance” against junk carbon.

    1.7 Subprime carbon

    “Subprime carbon” -- called “junk carbon” by traders -- are contracts to deliver carbon that carry a higher

    risk of not being fulfilled, and thus may collapse in value. They are comparable to subprime loans or junk

    bonds, debts that carry a higher probability of not being paid. Carbon offset credits can carry particularly

    high risks because many things can go wrong with offset projects. Not only do such projects face normal

    commercial and operational risks, but independent verifiers may find that a project has not reduced the

    projected amount of emissions, for example, or the CDM Executive Board may determine that a project

    failed to comply with relevant standards. Subprime carbon particularly can become a problem because

    sellers can make promises ahead of time to deliver carbon credits before the credits are issued, or sometimes

    even before greenhouse gas emissions have been verified.

    1.8 The build-up of subprime carbon creates broader financial risks

    In today's interconnected financial markets, the build-up of subprime assets in one part of the economy can

    pose risks to the broader financial system. Subprime risks may particularly build up in carbon markets for

    two reasons.

First, the problem of subprime carbon is mostly associated with offsets, rather than government-issued

    allowances. In the US, Europe, Australia, and other economies, there is immense pressure to expand the use

    of offsets to meet emissions reductions obligations. But the more carbon offsets are allowed into the trading

    system, the greater the risk of subprime carbon building up in the system.

Secondly, since carbon markets will be dominated by speculators, a carbon bubble may develop. Bubble

    mentalities can encourage excessive risk-taking and unscrupulous behavior. For example, in the current

    financial crisis, home loans that would never have been made under normal circumstances were pushed

    through because prices just kept going up, and banks could pass risky assets onto others. The same

    dynamic could happen in carbon markets as unscrupulous intermediaries overpromise on offset projects,

    selling future credits based on projects that do not yet exist, do not meet standards, or which simply do not

    deliver promised greenhouse gas reductions. If that happened, those subprime carbon assets would collapse

    in value, leaving investors holding the bag.

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2. Riches for Wall Street, Questionable Environmental Results

    While the world's largest carbon trading system, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has not

    produced its intended environmental results, one clear winner emerges when large carbon trading systems

    are established: big banks.

At a time when financial firms are suffering, big banks are still making money from their commodity trading

    desks. Carbon trading, especially if a global carbon market emerges, offers immense profit potential for

    banks. They can earn lucrative fees brokering in over-the-counter trades, and if they bet the right way, their

    proprietary trading desks can generate profits by gambling on carbon prices. Banks are also cashing in by

    buying shares in carbon exchanges and offset development companies. Their investment banking and asset

    management divisions are busy marketing carbon as a new "asset class" for large institutional investors and

    developing financial products to sell to them.

In fact, there are so many ways that Wall Street can profit from this system that in the US, the financial 4industry has employed 130 climate change lobbyists just to influence climate legislation.

    2.1 What Wall Street wants

    Above all, big banks want large and liquid carbon markets, epitomized by a global carbon market. They argue that creating large and liquid markets is to allow markets to clear and to prevent a single trader from 5cornering the market. But in addition, higher volume markets obviously amount to more trades and

    increased fee revenue for brokers and traders.

    Banks also want unfettered access to offsets credits. Carbon offset trade associations naturally want “broad access 6to [both] domestic and international emission offsets.” In April 2008, the Carbon Markets and Investors Association (CIMA) went so far as to request that the European Union adopt an amendment to their 7Emissions Trading Scheme to replace auctioned allowances with CDM credits. Although carbon offset

    credits run a relatively high risk of not delivering carbon reductions (potentially resulting in subprime

    carbon), one of the key rationales for allowing an unlimited proportion of offsets is to keep costs low. But

    clearly, large offset markets would also be more profitable for banks, which are building their offset

    business and carbon trading desks, especially for carbon derivatives contracts.

    Finally, banks want as little regulation as possible, which means resisting calls to push carbon trading onto exchanges and preserving the ability to trade over-the-counter. Traders and speculators thrive in a market

    with price volatility, and strongly call for “full recourse to market-based risk management” tools for 8hedging, arguing that “OTC (derivatives) contracts will be needed for managing GHG price-risk under a 9cap and trade program.” Carbon trade associations acknowledge the role that exchanges can play, but they

    also strongly advocate for a vigorous OTC market, as brokerage fees are likely to be higher for OTC deals.

     4 Lavelle, Marianne, "An Army of Lobbyists Readies for Battle on the Climate Bill," Yale Environment 360, 16 March

    2009 at http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2131 5 Letter from International Emissions Trading Association to Representative Henry Waxman et al, April 16, 2009 at

    http://www.ieta.org/ieta/www/pages/getfile.php?docID=3274 6 Carbon Markets and Investors Association, “Market Design Principles,” at http://www.cmia.net/mdp.php 7 Carbon Markets and Investors Association, “Industry Body Calls for Amendment to ETS Draft Directive to Safe-Guard CDM Market,” at http://www.cmia.net/press_release.php 8 Letter from International Emissions Trading Association to Representative Henry Waxman et al, April 16, 2009 at

    http://www.ieta.org/ieta/www.pages/getfile.php?docID=3274 and International Swaps and Derivatives Association, 2009

    completed questionnaire to the Committee on Agriculture, U.S. House of Representatives, at

    http://www.isda.org/speeches/pdf/ISDA-Response-House-AG-Commttee-Questionnaire.pdf

    9 Letter from International Emissions Trading Association to Representative Henry Waxman et al, April 16, 2009 at

    http://www.ieta.org/ieta/www/pages/getfile.php?docID=3274

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2.2 De-constructing the calls for liquidity, price discovery and risk transfer

In making their recommendations, Wall Street often invokes concepts that are almost sacrosanct in terms

    of free market principles, but not necessarily as applicable or important in a carbon market, depending on

    how it is constructed.

For example, market proponents argue that is imperative to ensure liquidity for market functioning.

    Therefore, carbon markets should be interlinked and global, include as many sectors as possible under the

    cap, allow a large proportion of financial speculators to participate in the market, and not burden them

    investors with high margin requirements, etc. The call for liquidity is also logical in a system that relies

    heavily on carbon offsets. However, in a “textbook” emissions market (no offsets, limited to covered

    entities only), liquidity is actually designed to decrease as the emissions cap tightens. The argument that

    liquidity is paramount only makes sense if the market is designed in other ways that Wall Street wants (e.g.

    a large proportion of offsets). Leading carbon trading systems and proposals already offer companies a

    range of different options, including borrowing and banking allowances, to cope with potential liquidity

    problems.

    Similarly, carbon trade associations maintain that price discovery is an essential market function, so policy makers should design a system with large secondary markets and vigorous amounts of speculation. For

    example, in making recommendations to the EU, the IETA warned that governments could potentially

    interfere with price discovery through auctions. They maintained that “Auctions should simply be a means

    to place allowances in the carbon market …[they] are a powerful tool that may be used or abused [by

    governments] to manipulate or manage the price of carbon; this will undercut the value of the market in 10setting an accurate price for carbon.” However, unlike other markets, the measure of carbon price accuracy is not whether it best reflects “what the market will bear” at the time; but rather, whether the

    price is high, clear, and consistent enough to generate the intended environmental results.

Finally, carbon market proponents often point to the need to efficiently transfer risk to those investors who

    are most able to handle it, an objective that can be best met through the creation of secondary and

    derivatives markets. The objective of risk transfer has been so exalted that it has been used as an argument

    against general derivatives regulations, such as position limits, exchange-based futures trading, and higher

    margin requirements. It has even been argued that position limits are inefficient “because they limit the 11ability of speculators to absorb risks from [other] speculators.” 3. Conclusion

    Proposals to make emissions trading units “fully fungible” (Ad Hoc Working Group On Long-Term Cooperative Action, Non-paper No. 42: Various approaches to enhance the cost-effectiveness of, and to promote, mitigation actions) are a

    clear move towards creating a global carbon market. Carbon market proponents argue that creating a

    global market will allocate capital to the most cost-effective emissions reductions.

    However, linking trading schemes with different rules would instead encourage a “race to the bottom,”

    with capital migrating towards those with the weakest environmental protections and the loosest caps.

Given the environmental ineffectiveness of carbon trading thus far, the quest to create a global market in

    carbon may instead only enrich "Wall Street" banks while posing new systemic financial risks.

     10 Presentation of Michela Beltracchi, European Policy Coordinator, International Emissions Trading Association

    IETA Recommendations for the Design of EUA Auctions,” Brussels, 11 April 2008 at http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission/pdf/080411/ieta_auctioning.pdf 11 Testimony of Craig Pirrong, Professor of finance, Bauer College of Business, The University of Houston, before

    the House Committee on Agriculture, July 7, 2008 at http://agriculture.house.gov/testimony/110/h80710/pirrong.pdf

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