Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition

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Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition ...

    Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2006-07 Edition

     U.S. Department of Labor | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Bulletin 2600

Tomorrow's Jobs

    Making informed career decisions requires reliable information about opportunities in the future.

    Opportunities result from the relationships between the population, labor force, and the demand for goods

    and services.

    Population ultimately limits the size of the labor forceindividuals working or looking for workwhich constrains how much can be produced. Demand for various goods and services determines employment in

    the industries providing them. Occupational employment opportunities, in turn, result from demand for skills

    needed within specific industries. Opportunities for medical assistants and other healthcare occupations, for

    example, have surged in response to rapid growth in demand for health services.

    Examining the past and projecting changes in these relationships is the foundation of the Occupational

    Outlook Program. This chapter presents highlights of Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the labor

    force and occupational and industry employment that can help guide your career plans.

    [View Chart 1] Population Back to Top

    Population trends affect employment opportunities in a number of ways. Changes in population influence the

    demand for goods and services. For example, a growing and aging population has increased the demand for

    health services. Equally important, population changes produce corresponding changes in the size and

    demographic composition of the labor force.

    The U.S. civilian noninstitutional population is expected to increase by 23.9 million over the 2004-14 period,

    at a slower rate of growth than during both the 1994-2004 and 1984-94 periods (Chart 1). Continued growth will mean more consumers of goods and services, spurring demand for workers in a wide range of

    occupations and industries. The effects of population growth on various occupations will differ. The

    differences are partially accounted for by the age distribution of the future population.

The youth population, aged 16 to 24, will grow 2.9 percent over the 2004-14 period. As the baby boomers

    continue to age, the group aged 55 to 64 will increase by 36 percent or 10.4 million persons, more than any

    other group. The group aged 35 to 44 will decrease in size, reflecting the birth dearth following the baby

    boom generation.

    Minorities and immigrants will constitute a larger share of the U.S. population in 2014. The number of

    Hispanics is projected to continue to grow much faster than those of all other racial and ethnic groups.

    [View Chart 2 Chart 3] Labor Force Back to Top

    Population is the single most important factor in determining the size and composition of the labor force

    that is, people who are either working or looking for work. The civilian labor force is projected to increase

    by 14.7 million, or 10 percent, to 162.1 million over the 2004-14 period.

    The U.S. workforce will become more diverse by 2014. White, non-Hispanic persons will continue to make

    up a decreasing share of the labor force, falling from 70 percent in 2004 to 65.6 percent in 2014 (Chart 2).

    However, despite relatively slow growth, white, non-Hispanics will remain the largest group in the labor

    force in 2014. Asians are projected to account for an increasing share of the labor force by 2014, growing

    from 4.3 to 5.1 percent. Hispanics are projected to be the fastest growing of the four labor force groups,

    growing by 33.7 percent. By 2014, Hispanics will continue to constitute a larger proportion of the labor force

    than will blacks, whose share will grow from 11.3 percent to 12.0 percent.

The numbers of men and women in the labor force will grow, but the number of women will grow at a faster

    rate than the number of men. The male labor force is projected to grow by 9.1 percent from 2004 to 2014,

    compared with 10.9 percent for women. As a result, men’s share of the labor force is expected to decrease

    from 53.6 to 53.2 percent, while women’s share is expected to increase from 46.4 to 46.8 percent.

    The youth labor force, aged 16 to 24, is expected to slightly decrease its share of the labor force to 13.7

    percent by 2014. The primary working age group, between 25 and 54 years old, is projected to decline from

    69.3 percent of the labor force in 2004 to 65.2 percent by 2014. Workers 55 and older, on the other hand, are

    projected to increase from 15.6 percent to 21.2 percent of the labor force between 2004 and 2014, due to the

    aging of the baby-boom generation (Chart 3).

     Employment Back to Top

    Total employment is expected to increase from 145.6 million in 2004 to 164.5 million in 2014, or by 13

    percent. The 18.9 million jobs that will be added by 2014 will not be evenly distributed across major

    industrial and occupational groups. Changes in consumer demand, technology, and many other factors will

    contribute to the continually changing employment structure in the U.S. economy.

    The following two sections examine projected employment change from both industrial and occupational

    perspectives. The industrial profile is discussed in terms of primary wage and salary employment. Primary

    employment excludes secondary jobs for those who hold multiple jobs. The exception is employment in

    agriculture, which includes self-employed and unpaid family workers in addition to wage and salary workers.

    The occupational profile is viewed in terms of total employmentincluding primary and secondary jobs for wage and salary, self-employed, and unpaid family workers. Of the nearly 146 million jobs in the U.S.

    economy in 2004, wage and salary workers accounted for 133.5 million; self-employed workers accounted

    for 12.1 million; and unpaid family workers accounted for about 141,000. Secondary employment accounted

    for 1.7 million jobs. Self-employed workers held 9 out of 10 secondary jobs; wage and salary workers held

    most of the remainder.

    [View Chart 4 Chart 5] Industry Back to Top

    Service-providing industries. The long-term shift from goods-producing to service-providing employment

    is expected to continue. Service-providing industries are expected to account for approximately 18.7 million

    of the 18.9 million new wage and salary jobs generated over the 2004-14 period (Chart 4).

Education and health services. This industry supersector is projected to grow faster, 30.6 percent, and add

    more jobs than any other industry supersector. About 3 out of every 10 new jobs created in the U.S. economy

    will be in either the healthcare and social assistance or private educational services sectors.

    Healthcare and social assistanceincluding private hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and

    individual and family serviceswill grow by 30.3 percent and add 4.3 million new jobs. Employment

    growth will be driven by increasing demand for healthcare and social assistance because of an aging

    population and longer life expectancies. Also, as more women enter the labor force, demand for childcare

    services is expected to grow. Private educational services will grow by 32.5 percent and add 898,000 new

    jobs through 2014. Rising student enrollments at all levels of education will create demand for educational


    Professional and business services. This industry supersector, which includes some of the fastest growing

    industries in the U.S. economy, will grow by 27.8 percent and add more than 4.5 million new jobs.

    Employment in administrative and support and waste management and remediation services will grow by 31

    percent and add 2.5 million new jobs to the economy by 2014. The fastest growing industry in this sector

    will be employment services, which will grow by 45.5 percent and will contribute almost two-thirds of all

    new jobs in administrative and support and waste management and remediation services. Employment

    services ranks among the fastest growing industries in the Nation and is expected to be among those that

    provide the most new jobs.

    Employment in professional, scientific, and technical services will grow by 28.4 percent and add 1.9 million

    new jobs by 2014. Employment in computer systems design and related services will grow by 39.5 percent

    and add almost one-fourth of all new jobs in professional, scientific, and technical services. Employment

    growth will be driven by the increasing reliance of businesses on information technology and the continuing

    importance of maintaining system and network security. Management, scientific, and technical consulting

    services also will grow very rapidly, by 60.5 percent, spurred by the increased use of new technology and

    computer software and the growing complexity of business.

    Management of companies and enterprises will grow by 10.6 percent and add 182,000 new jobs.

    Information. Employment in the information supersector is expected to increase by 11.6 percent, adding

    364,000 jobs by 2014. Information contains some of the fast-growing computer-related industries such as

    software publishers; Internet publishing and broadcasting; and Internet service providers, Web search portals,

    and data processing services. Employment in these industries is expected to grow by 67.6 percent, 43.5

    percent, and 27.8 percent, respectively. The information supersector also includes telecommunications,

    broadcasting, and newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers. Increased demand for residential

    and business land-line and wireless services, cable service, high-speed Internet connections, and software

    will fuel job growth among these industries.

    Leisure and hospitality. Overall employment will grow by 17.7 percent. Arts, entertainment, and recreation

    will grow by 25 percent and add 460,000 new jobs by 2014. Most of these new job openings will come from

    the amusement, gambling, and recreation sector. Job growth will stem from public participation in arts,

    entertainment, and recreation activitiesreflecting increasing incomes, leisure time, and awareness of the

    health benefits of physical fitness.

    Accommodation and food services is expected to grow by 16.5 percent and add 1.8 million new jobs through

    2014. Job growth will be concentrated in food services and drinking places, reflecting increases in population,

    dual-income families, and dining sophistication

Trade, transportation, and utilities. Overall employment in this industry supersector will grow by 10.3

    percent between 2004 and 2014. Transportation and warehousing is expected to increase by 506,000 jobs, or by 11.9 percent through 2014. Truck transportation will grow by 9.6 percent, adding 129,000 new jobs, while rail transportation is projected to decline. The warehousing and storage sector is projected to grow rapidly at 24.8 percent, adding 138,000 jobs. Demand for truck transportation and warehousing services will expand as many manufacturers concentrate on their core competencies and contract out their product transportation and storage functions.

    Employment in retail trade is expected to increase by 11 percent, from 15 million to 16.7 million. Increases in population, personal income, and leisure time will contribute to employment growth in this industry, as consumers demand more goods. Wholesale trade is expected to increase by 8.4 percent, growing from 5.7 million to 6.1 million jobs.

    Employment in utilities is projected to decrease by 1.3 percent through 2014. Despite increased output, employment in electric power generation, transmission, and distribution and natural gas distribution is expected to decline through 2014 due to improved technology that increases worker productivity. However, employment in water, sewage, and other systems is expected to increase 21 percent by 2014. Jobs are not easily eliminated by technological gains in this industry because water treatment and waste disposal are very labor-intensive activities.

    Financial activities. Employment is projected to grow 10.5 percent over the 2004-14 period. Real estate and

    rental and leasing is expected to grow by 16,9 percent and add 353,000 jobs by 2014. Growth will be due, in part, to increased demand for housing as the population grows. The fastest growing industry in the financial activities supersector will be activities related to real estate, which will grow by 32.1 percent, reflecting the housing boom that persists throughout most of the Nation.

    Finance and insurance is expected to increase by 496,000 jobs, or 8.3 percent, by 2014. Employment in securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments and related activities is expected to grow 15.8 percent by 2014, reflecting the increased number of baby boomers in their peak savings years, the growth of tax-favorable retirement plans, and the globalization of the securities markets. Employment in credit intermediation and related services, including banks, will grow by 5.4 percent and add about one-third of all new jobs within finance and insurance. Insurance carriers and related activities is expected to grow by 9.5 percent and add 215,000 new jobs by 2014. The number of jobs within agencies, brokerages, and other insurance related activities is expected to grow about 19.4 percent, as many insurance carriers downsize their sales staffs and as agents set up their own businesses.

    Government. Between 2004 and 2014, government employment, including that in public education and

    hospitals, is expected to increase by 10 percent, from 21.6 million to 23.8 million jobs. Growth in government employment will be fueled by growth in State and local educational services and the shift of responsibilities from the Federal Government to the State and local governments. Local government educational services is projected to increase 10 percent, adding 783,000 jobs. State government educational services is projected to grow by 19.6 percent, adding 442,000 jobs. Federal Government employment, including the Postal Service, is expected to increase by only 1.6 percent as the Federal Government continues to contract out many government jobs to private companies.

    Other services (except government). Employment will grow by 14 percent. More than 1 out of every 4 new

    jobs in this supersector will be in religious organizations, which is expected to grow by 11.9 percent. Other automotive repair and maintenance will be the fastest growing industry at 30.7 percent. Also included among other services is personal care services, which is expected to increase by 19.5 percent.

Goods-producing industries. Employment in the goods-producing industries has been relatively stagnant

    since the early 1980s. Overall, this sector is expected to decline 0.4 percent over the 2004-14 period.

    Although employment is expected to decline or increase more slowly than in the service-providing industries,

    projected growth among goods-producing industries varies considerably (Chart 5).

    Construction. Employment in construction is expected to increase by 11.4 percent, from 7 million to 7.8 million. Demand for new housing and an increase in road, bridge, and tunnel construction will account for

    the bulk of job growth in this supersector.

    Manufacturing. Employment change in manufacturing will vary by individual industry, but overall employment in this supersector will decline by 5.4 percent or 777,000 jobs. For example, employment in

    transportation equipment manufacturing is expected to grow by 95,000 jobs. Due to an aging population and

    increasing life expectancies, pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing is expected to grow by 26.1

    percent and add 76,000 jobs through 2014. However, productivity gains, job automation, and international

    competition will adversely affect employment in many other manufacturing industries. Employment in

    textile mills and apparel manufacturing will decline by 119,000 and 170,000 jobs, respectively. Employment

    in computer and electronic product manufacturing also will decline by 94,000 jobs through 2014.

    Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting. Overall employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting

    is expected to decrease by 5.2 percent. Employment is expected to continue to decline due to advancements

    in technology. The only industry within this supersector expected to grow is support activities for agriculture

    and forestry, which includes farm labor contractors and farm management services. This industry is expected

    to grow by 18.2 percent and add 19,000 new jobs.

    Mining. Employment in mining is expected to decrease 8.8 percent, or by some 46,000 jobs, by 2014.

    Employment in coal mining and metal ore mining is expected to decline by 23.3 percent and 29.3 percent,

    respectively. Employment in oil and gas extraction also is projected to decline by 13.1 percent through 2014.

    Employment decreases in these industries are attributable mainly to technology gains that boost worker

    productivity, growing international competition, restricted access to Federal lands, and strict environmental

    regulations that require cleaning of burning fuels.

    [View Chart 6 Chart 7 Chart 8 Chart 9 ] Occupation Back to Top

    Expansion of service-providing industries is expected to continue, creating demand for many occupations.

    However, projected job growth varies among major occupational groups (Chart 6).

    Professional and related occupations. Professional and related occupations will grow the fastest and add more new jobs than any other major occupational group. Over the 2004-14 period, a 21.2-percent increase in

    the number of professional and related jobs is projected, which translates into 6 million new jobs.

    Professional and related workers perform a wide variety of duties, and are employed throughout private

    industry and government. About three-quarters of the job growth will come from three groups of

    professional occupationscomputer and mathematical occupations, healthcare practitioners and technical

    occupations, and education, training, and library occupationswhich will add 4.5 million jobs combined.

    Service occupations. Service workers perform services for the public. Employment in service occupations is

    projected to increase by 5.3 million, or 19 percent, the second largest numerical gain and second highest rate

    of growth among the major occupational groups. Food preparation and serving related occupations are

    expected to add the most jobs among the service occupations, 1.7 million by 2014. However, healthcare

    support occupations are expected to grow the fastest, 33.3 percent, adding 1.2 million new jobs.

    Management, business, and financial occupations. Workers in management, business, and financial occupations plan and direct the activities of business, government, and other organizations. Their

    employment is expected to increase by 2.2 million, or 14.4 percent, by 2014. Among managers, the numbers

    of preschool and childcare center/program educational administrators and of computer and information

    systems managers will grow the fastest, by 27.9 percent and 25.9 percent, respectively. General and

    operations managers will add the most new jobs, 308,000, by 2014. Farmers and ranchers are the only

    workers in this major occupational group whose numbers are expected to decline, losing 155,000 jobs.

    Among business and financial occupations, accountants and auditors and management analysts will add the

most jobs, 386,000 combined. Employment, recruitment, and placement specialists and personal financial

    advisors will be the fastest growing occupations in this group, with job increases of 30.5 percent and 25.9

    percent, respectively.

    Construction and extraction occupations. Construction and extraction workers construct new residential and

    commercial buildings, and also work in mines, quarries, and oil and gas fields. Employment of these workers

    is expected to grow 12 percent, adding 931,000 new jobs. Construction trades and related workers will

    account for more than three-fourths of these new jobs, 699,000, by 2014. Many extraction occupations will

    decline, reflecting overall employment losses in the mining and oil and gas extraction industries.

    Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations. Workers in installation, maintenance, and repair

    occupations install new equipment and maintain and repair older equipment. These occupations will add

    657,000 jobs by 2014, growing by 11.4 percent. Automotive service technicians and mechanics and general

    maintenance and repair workers will account for half of all new installation, maintenance, and repair jobs.

    The fastest growth rate will be among security and fire alarm systems installers, an occupation that is

    expected to grow 21.7 percent over the 2004-14 period.

    Transportation and material moving occupations. Transportation and material moving workers transport

    people and materials by land, sea, or air. The number of these workers should grow 11.1 percent, accounting

    for 1.1 million additional jobs by 2014. Among transportation occupations, motor vehicle operators will add

    the most jobs, 629,000. Material moving occupations will grow 8.3 percent and will add 405,000 jobs. Rail

    transportation occupations are the only group in which employment is projected to decline, by 1.1 percent,

    through 2014.

    Sales and related occupations. Sales and related workers transfer goods and services among businesses and consumers. Sales and related occupations are expected to add 1.5 million new jobs by 2014, growing by 9.6

    percent. The majority of these jobs will be among retail salespersons and cashiers, occupations that will add

    849,000 jobs combined.

    Office and administrative support occupations. Office and administrative support workers perform the day-

    to-day activities of the office, such as preparing and filing documents, dealing with the public, and

    distributing information. Employment in these occupations is expected to grow by 5.8 percent, adding 1.4

    million new jobs by 2014. Customer service representatives will add the most new jobs, 471,000. Desktop

    publishers will be among the fastest growing occupations in this group, increasing by 23.2 percent over the

    decade. However, due to rising productivity and increased automation, office and administrative support

    occupations also account for 11 of the 20 occupations with the largest employment declines.

    Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations. Farming, fishing, and forestry workers cultivate plants, breed

    and raise livestock, and catch animals. These occupations will decline 1.3 percent and lose 13,000 jobs by

    2014. Agricultural workers, including farmworkers and laborers, accounted for the overwhelming majority

    of new jobs in this group. The number of fishing and hunting workers is expected to decline, by 16.6, percent,

    while the number of logging workers is expected to increase by less than 1 percent.

    Production occupations. Production workers are employed mainly in manufacturing, where they assemble goods and operate plants. Production occupations are expected to decline less than 1 percent, losing 79,000

    jobs by 2014. Jobs will be created for many production occupations, including food processing workers,

    machinists, and welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers. Textile, apparel, and furnishings occupations, as well

    as assemblers and fabricators, will account for much of the job losses among production occupations.

    Among all occupations in the economy, computer and healthcare occupations are expected to grow the

    fastest over the projection period (Chart 7). ). In fact, healthcare occupations make up 12 of the 20 fastest

    growing occupations, while computer occupations account for 5 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations in the economy. In addition to high growth rates, these 17 computer and healthcare occupations combined will add more than 1.8 million new jobs. High growth rates among computer and healthcare occupations reflect projected rapid growth in the computer and data processing and health services industries.

The 20 occupations listed in Chart 8 , 7.1 million combined, over the 2004-14 period. The occupations with

    the largest numerical increases cover a wider range of occupational categories than do those occupations with the fastest growth rates. Health occupations will account for some of these increases in employment, as well as occupations in education, sales, transportation, office and administrative support, and food service.

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