China's current economic difficulties in interpretation of employment of university students
【Abstract】 The current U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on China's economy has brought a greater negative impact, in particular, led to the domestic
export-oriented businesses close down a large number of layoffs or a large number of. Employment of university students has been considerable difficulties, it is with the current economic development, industrial structure, labor supply and demand market, the international short-term
capital flows, economic cycle progression, the international balance of payments, exchange rates, labor force quality, and cost factors of production substitution effect, voluntary unemployment , frictional unemployment, the employing units employing the concept, and so closely related.
Keywords: employment; students; the labor market; the financial crisis
1, economic development and industrial structure
In general, the rapid economic development will lead to employment
growth, can be said that sustained economic development is the fundamental guarantee of employment. Because economic development in order to create jobs. If there is no health of the economy growing steadily, it is difficult to protect the employment growth. But economic growth and
employment growth are not synchronized, which will appear employment gap. In China in recent years employment growth in the proportion of university students as an example (Figure 1), 2001-2007 economic growth rate
increased steadily, while employment growth rate of university students are ups and downs, and even very low. Such as the employment growth rate in 2006 lower than in 2005 only 5.3%. Since 2000, China's GDP average annual growth rate of 9%, but economic growth, employment absorption
capacities have not increased at the same rate, indicating the economic growth to improve employment growth is only relative and not absolute. Also used in economics to reflect the employment elasticity of economic growth on employment growth contribution. Employment elasticity
coefficient is the number of practitioners of the ratio of growth rate and GDP growth, ie GDP growth of 1 percentage point led employment growth,
employment elasticity coefficient greater the greater ability to absorb
the labor force, and vice versa, the weaker . Figure 1 can be seen in employment elasticity curve simultaneously with the employment growth rate curve.
If you do not solve the employment problem, which in turn would affect economic development and social stability. Rising unemployment and reduced income people, reduce aggregate demand, thereby affecting the economy's sustainable development. High levels of unemployment affect the social stability, increase crime and suicide rates. According to the U.S. Johns
Hopkins University study , the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point rise in the suicide rate go up by 4.1 percentage points, the number of crimes increased by 5.7 percentage points, to reduce the gross national product of 4.7 percentage points. Now a time when difficult economic
times, our country's most important immediate issue is the relationship between people's livelihood to more than 20 million people's employment problems, deal with this issue, in order to promote economic development
and safeguard social stability.
Another adjustment of industrial structure of employment is also very beneficial. China's first industry contraction, the secondary industry from labor-intensive industries to capital-intensive industries, the rapid
development of tertiary industry . In general, the employment function of strong labor-intensive industries, capital-intensive industries, the
employment function of the weak. Technology-intensive industry, there are
two cases, one technology - the labor-intensive industries, the relative
strength of the employment function, the second is technology - the job
function of capital-intensive industries are relatively weak. Of course, the functions and differences between the actual employment level of development also depends on the industry, trends and characteristics. Based on China's labor market situation, we should vigorously develop the second industry and tertiary industry, which can adjust the employment structure, create more jobs.
Second, the labor market AD-AS model
As China's higher education enrollment, a vast contingent of employment of university graduates are increasingly large, its speed is much larger than the requisite human resources community growth. Moreover, coupled with China's emerging labor market supply has never been since the founding of the "sambong overlay" posture, that is, university graduates, rural surplus labor transfer and re-employment of laid-off workers,
together constitute a huge market of China's labor supply flow. And now
the financial crisis and global economic recession and the yuan appreciation, and many other factors, led to the emergence of China's
labor market situation of a serious imbalance of supply exceeding demand.
According to labor supply and demand equilibrium theory  (Figure 2),
assuming the labor market supply and demand balance (in fact, according to China's current population, a poor foundation, economic backwardness and uneven development, modernization and low level of basic national conditions, full employment, the balance of point is very difficult to do), then the equilibrium of labor wage (W / P) *. However, as the demand for labor is much larger than L2 labor supply L1, which caused most of the population is unemployed (L2-L1). According to market rules, oversupply,
lower prices, so the remaining workers in order to sell their labor will be lower wage rate, the wage (W / P) 1 to (W / P) * decline, thereby increasing business demand for labor, reduction in labor supply and ease the employment pressure. Difficult period of economic enterprises themselves faced with the gang face a high cost pressure, if the applicant proposed to business high wages, have certainly reduced the company's employment needs, to jobs difficult. Therefore, at this stage, applicants
should lower their expectations in order to find a suitable job.
Third, international short-term capital flows and economic cycle
International short-term capital  the flow of negative effects,
including the impact of domestic financial markets and the exchange rate impact. A large number of short-term inflows or outflows of foreign
capital will lead to the country's financial market, capital supply and demand imbalances in dramatic changes, leading to interest rates and
volatility of financial asset prices, thereby affecting the country's economic operation.
Access to capital, changes in foreign exchange supply and demand balance of funds, would inevitably lead to exchange rate fluctuations. Large foreign capital inflows, currency appreciation; large capital outflows, foreign currency appreciation. The country's international balance of payments deteriorated, making a country's micro-economic subjects (such as
enterprises) and even the behavior of macroeconomic variables are subject
to great influence. Direct reflection of the flow of capital for investment. Good investment to increase demand, stimulate employment and economic development. However, if the overheated investment in the short-
term capital gains can not be achieved, resulting in strand breaks in the supply of capital, adverse financial market stability and may lead to a financial crisis and economic crisis, the ultimate impact on employment.
1929 the United States swept the entire capitalist world economic crisis,
leading to Europe and the United States and other developed countries
suffer huge economic losses, the major state-owned banks, factories, also
have declared bankruptcy. Economic collapse, is directly affected workers. 2008 United States subprime mortgage crisis, too, to the people of the world a devastating blow to the world employment situation is very grim. Europe and the United States and other countries due to the soaring unemployment rate, the highest historical record. France's millions of
unemployed workers demonstrations, resulting in social chaos, we can see the global financial crisis on how deep the impact of the employment. In 2008 China's GDP by economic crisis still maintains a 9.0% rate of growth, but China's employment situation is still grim. According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security Law on Employment Promotion Secretary-ming said that the economic crisis due to multiple factors such as the impact of employment in 2009 reached 24 million, of which 13 million new urban labor force, 800 million laid-off unemployed persons,
There are other officers three million people who need to wait for job placement . Today in order to avoid social crisis triggered the economic crisis, the world should join a stable monetary and financial
system in order to ensure economic stability and development. So as to solve the employment problems and promoting social stability of all mankind.
Caused by economic cycles, unemployment was called cyclical unemployment . Economic recession is usually caused by cyclical unemployment (Cyclical unemployment). Because of the economic recession, lack of aggregate demand, businesses operating difficulties caused by insufficient funding, enhanced the rate of bankruptcies and closures, corporate mergers
frequently, reducing the stability of the enterprise is difficult to support sustained economic development and thus result in reduction in the demand for labor. Reposted elsewhere in the paper for free download http://
Fourth, the international balance of payments position and exchange rate
With China's rapid economic development in recent years, China's international balance of payments surplus has been maintained trend. Shown in Figure 3, from which we can see that China's international balance of
trade favorable balance is growing year by year, the trade surplus from 2004's 32.1 billion U.S. dollars in 2006 to 177.5 billion U.S. dollars and then to 2008, 295.4 billion U.S. dollars. However, China's trade surplus rise to a long-term European and American countries jealous. For a long time, European and American countries prone to deficit grounds, or to impose trade sanctions on China, either to revalue its currency, so that our country is facing a huge international pressure on RMB appreciation.
Appreciation of the renminbi by influencing foreign trade, changes in international balance of payments, thereby affecting a country's economic growth. Most of China's industries are labor-intensive industries, export-
oriented enterprises have become the driving economic growth and
employment to increase the main driving force. In recent years, however,
the yuan at an average annual appreciation rate of around 3% , RMB appreciation to increased prices of the export trade, business costs, thus
affecting China's export volume of trade, reduction of international trade revenue, changing the international balance of payments. RMB appreciation especially for textiles, clothing, footwear, toys, home appliances and other traditional labor-intensive export enterprises adversely affected, the employment needs of these industries is large, if the employing unit exports are sluggish, its personnel will be affected. Late last year the media have reported that due to yuan appreciation, resulting in the Pearl
River Delta Yangtze River Delta ？ tens of thousands of labor-intensive
export costs rise, the lack of products in the international market, the relative competitiveness, the resulting suspension even closed down. At the same time appreciation of the renminbi is also conducive to attracting