the growing cyber threat
a radical new approach suggests maybe
Can AIDS Be Cured?
How China Became the World??s Solar Leader Buzz Aldrin: Let??s Go to Mars
The iPad Hacked Open Which Countries Have the Fastest Broadband?
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Vo lum e 1 1 3 , N um ber 4
The growing threat of cyber crime, espionage, and warfare.
By DaViD Ta lb oT
36 Moore??s Outlaws
?ö www.technologyreview.com/cybersecurity Watch a video about worsening security and the risk of cyber war.
44 Can AIDS Be Cured?
researchers are pursuing radical new strategies to eliminate HiV from the body.
By Jo N C o He N
Photo illustration by Jana Leon
By K eViN bulliS
Suntech Ceo Zhengrong Shi made China a powerhouse in photovoltaics. Now he plans to make solar power as cheap as conventional electricity.
?ö www.technologyreview.com/suntech Hear the CTO of Suntech
52 Solar??s Great Leap Forward
The da Vinci robot can shorten surgical recovery times. By Emily Singer
28 Robot in the OR
explain the company??s advanced solar technology.
8 Letters 10 From the Editor
Cyber attacks are inspiring new defenses for networks, personal computers, and smart phones.
24 The Global
1 Militarizing 2
To preserve the open Internet, we must stop the cyber arms race. By Ronald Deibert
A detailed chart shows which countries have fast broadband and which don??t. By Tommy McCall and Matt Mahoney
72 America??s Broadband
The FCC aims to bring the country??s Internet access up to speed. By Bobbie Johnson
1 Preventing HIV 2
74 The Argument
A drug to slow the decline is on the horizon, some researchers say. Others don??t believe it. By Karen Weintraub
We should treat high-risk populations before they have been exposed. By Robert Grant
Solar panels are cheap enough to become a major component of green energy. By Ken Zweibel
Come of Age
76 The German
A decade ago, the German government set a premium price on alternative power sources. By Evan I. Schwartz
A robot to help with weight loss, personal AC, solar recharger, portable hotspot, pocket-sized bomb detector, electric delivery vehicle, and more.
The Apollo astronaut says: forget the moon, let??s colonize Mars. By Brittany Sauser
26 Buzz Aldrin
78 iPad 3G
A peek inside the tablet reveals how it connects to the world. By Erica Naone
?ö www.technologyreview.com/ hack See an interactive version.
t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w j u l y / a u g u s t 2010
Can tactile computing prevent a car accident?
80 Inexpensive, Unbreakable
Researchers at Hewlett-Packard are making silicon electronics on rolls of plastic. The result could be flexible, cheap displays. By Katherine Bourzac
?ö www.technologyreview.com/ demo Watch a video of HP??s printing process in action.
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froM thE LaBs
84 Materials 85 Information Technology 86 Biomedicine
26 yEars ago in TR
you avoid a car accident. When it comes to computing, the research that matters is in IEEE Xplore. See for yourself. Read ??Tactile and Multisensory Spatial Warning Signals for Drivers,?? only in IEEE Xplore. Try IEEE Xplore free?ª visit www.ieee.org/preventingaccidents
When researchers found the cause of AIDS in the early 1980s, their work had only just begun. By Matt Mahoney
88 The Long Fight Ahead
IEEE Xplore? Digital Library
Information driving innovation
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letters and comments
grading our predictions read about the subject. Public opinion on I always enjoy reading the new-technologies the Internet has made a difference, from article (??10 Emerging Technologies 2010,?? the revelation of the corrupt Nanjing offiMay/June 2010). It would be cial to the acquittal of Deng Yujiao. But its impact can interesting to see how well be overstated. I haven??t seen your predictions over the evidence that online discusyears have done. What percentage are on track? Do you sions have changed any major do better in certain fields? If policies. Nor have they led to it turns out you are good at investigations of anyone other this, maybe you could sell than marginal officials. Also, your picks. the impact of Google??s partial withdrawal from China Ed Macho May/June ??10 Hilton Head Island, SC may not have had as much of an effect as we think on Chinese residents. In fact, to many ChiWhile we haven??t formally looked at how well our predictions have done, we may do so in the nese users, the ??War of Internet Addiction?? future. Thanks for the suggestion! ?ªEditors video, which satirizes the regulatory battles over the approval of World of Warcraft and dreams of the future the government??s 2009 attempts to ??cure?? I find every issue of Technology Review Internet addiction, probably had more of useful in more ways than one. First, it??s an impact. always provocative reading. Second, it Bill Bishop Beijing, China provides ample material to inspire my boys with technological dreams of the future: OLED lights, 3-D smart phones, jet packs, the impact of e-books renewable solar fuels, green concrete, and There??s a lot wrong with your review of implantable electronics, to name a few. And e-book readers (??Going Out of Print,?? May/ to top it off, a novel chart of U.S. energy June 2010), beginning with the assumption flows that I will be using in the next lecture that print will go the way of the CD. Accordfor my global-warming class. ing to a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey David Lea published by the Financial Times on FebruSanta Barbara, CA ary 9, the impact of e-readers is expected to rise in the United States from about 1 perchina and the web cent of sales in 2008 to about 6 percent in As a Beijing-based tech entrepreneur and 2013. Books and music are not analogous. blogger at Digicha.com, I thought David The traditional publishing industry is Talbot??s ??China??s Internet Paradox?? (May/ beset by many woes, including its inabilJune 2010) was one of the best articles I??ve ity to agree upon a digital strategy, but the e-reader is not the chief culprit. I discussed the plight of the publishing industry and its join the discussion, or contact us probable outcome in a recent issue of the ?ö technologyreview.com/community New York Review of Books. e-mail email@example.com Jason Epstein write Technology Review, One Main Street, New York, NY 7th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02142 fax
617-475-8043 The author is the creator of the trade paperPlease include your address, telephone number, back and cofounder of the New York Review and e-mail address. Letters may be edited for of Books. ?ªEditors both clarity and length.
I agree that newspapers and magazines could profit by offering professional design and writing, but books may be different. It is much easier to self-publish today than ever before, but publishers still offer professional editing, art, and marketing, and I??m not sure how a self-published author would obtain those services. And if costs of materials, printing, and shipping are reduced through digital publishing, do publishers really lose money at $9.99? mwilson1962 (Mark Wilson, Rochester, NY)
Publishers will only survive if they evolve their business model instead of forcing Amazon to charge more than $9.99 for Kindle books. These publishers are rushing blindly down the same path as the recording industry, maintaining an outmoded business model. The resulting piracy will be devastating to agents, publishers, and, worse, authors. rttedrow (Richard Tedrow, Bethesda, MD)
Good Q&A with Paul Otellini (May/June 2010). He should be commended for bringing up the decline of innovation. However, I take issue with his assertion that U.S. corporate tax rates are among the highest of developed countries. After all the tax breaks and generous loopholes, the tax rate for U.S. corporations is among the lowest in the developed world. outsider (Subramani Iyer, San Jose, CA) Otellini scratches the surface of problems facing U.S. companies. When I started in business years ago, government-funded research could be counted on, but for the last decade we??ve been ruled by those interested in gaming financial systems rather than supporting competitiveness. Corporate execs increase short-term profits by outsourcing jobs to foreign countries. Most of the competent engineers I??ve known employed by U.S. companies were let go in their 50s, when they can be most productive in creating the next generations of technologies. fiberman (Jim Hayes, Fallbrook, CA)
letters and comments
t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w j u l y / a u g u s t 2010
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how should technologists think about precautions?
have been thinking about risk. As I write this column in early June, British Petroleum is still struggling to contain its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. After the company??s drilling rig, Deepwater Horizon, exploded on April 20, as many as 19,000 barrels of oil (or as much as 800,000 gallons) spewed into the Gulf every day. A cap is now capturing a little more than 400,000 gallons a day. It is the worst environmental disaster in the history of the United States, but there may be no solution until BP completes two ??relief wells?? in August. In this issue of Technology Review, David Talbot writes about the increasing incidence of cyber crime and espionage, and the real (if still speculative) risk of outright cyber warfare. In ??Moore??s Outlaws?? (p. 36), he quotes Stewart Baker, the former general counsel of the National Security Agency and a former policy chief at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security: ??What we??ve been seeing, over the last decade or so, is that Moore??s Law is working more for the bad guys than the good guys. It??s really ??Moore??s outlaws?? who are winning this fight. Code is more complex, and that means more opportunity to exploit the code. There is more money to be made in exploiting the code, and that means there are more and more sophisticated people looking to exploit vulnerabilities. If you look at things like malware found, or attacks, or the size of the haul people are pulling in, there is an exponential increase.?? Talbot describes experts?? concerns that computer viruses have made millions of machines into ??enslaved armies???ªbotnets?ª awaiting instruction by malefactors. In the days leading up to April 1, 2009, a worm called Conficker was expected to receive an update from its unknown creator, but no one knew what: ??A tweak to Conficker??s code might cause the three million or so machines ???? to start attacking the servers of some company or government network, vomit out billions of pieces of spam, or just improve the worm??s own ability to propagate.?? It??s scary stuff. In the first case, a complex system of technologies (whose purpose is to extract crude oil five miles under the ocean??s surface) failed; in the second, a more complex system (a global computer network whose purposes are incomprehensibly various, but upon which our technological civilization depends) is failing. These failures are not so much predictable as unsurprising. We expanded our use of vulnerable technologies, because we were dependent upon them. How should we think about the risks inherent in technologies, particularly new technologies?
One possible intellectual tool, popular with environmentalists and