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Technology Review20100708

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Technology Review20100708

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     the growing cyber threat

     p36

     briefing

     computer security

     p59

     a radical new approach suggests maybe

     Can AIDS Be Cured?

     p44

     How China Became the World??s Solar Leader Buzz Aldrin: Let??s Go to Mars

     p26 p52

     The iPad Hacked Open Which Countries Have the Fastest Broadband?

     p24 p78

     The Authority on the Future of Technology

     August 2010 www.technologyreview.com

     Celebrating ten years of bringing together the brightest minds and most innovative ideas.

     Now in its 10th year, EmTech@MIT brings Technology Review??s mission to life by showcasing the most important emerging technologies and explaining their impact. The annual conference spotlights technological innovations that are changing the face of business and driving the global economy. Spanning IT to energy, the Web to biomedicine and materials, the editors of Technology Review have pinpointed the key technologies that will drive the economy forward. REGISTER NOW!

     Why do you need to attend EmTech@MIT 2010?

     To discover key emerging technologies in IT, energy, the Web, biomedicine, and materials ? To understand how up-and-coming trends in these areas are going to impact your business ? To network with leaders in business and technology, including CEOs, CTOs, CIOs, policy leaders, entrepreneurs, venture investors, and more.

     Register Now and Save!

     Technology Review subscribers receive an additional 10% off of any full-conference package! Special discount for Technology Review subscribers!

     Interested in Sponsoring?

     Each year, EmTech@MIT attracts top decision makers from the technology, engineering, investment, and management communities. Partnering with Technology Review allows you to showcase your company??s technologies and capabilities to our influential audience. E-mail sponsorship@technologyreview.com to learn more.

     Sponsors Partners

     10th Anniversary Event! MIT Campus - Cambridge, MA ? September 21-23, 2010

     The 2010 conference is packed with world-renowned keynotes, cutting edge demos, compelling panel discussions, and opportunities for exclusive networking with our senior-level audience.

     Nazeer Bhore

     Senior Technology Advisor, ExxonMobil

     Dan Hesse

     CEO, Sprint

     Scott Elrod

     VP and Director of the Hardware Systems Laboratory, PARC

     Ellen Williams

     Chief Scientist, BP

     Kris Gopalakrishnan

     CEO, Infosys Technologies

     Stephen Wolfram

     CEO, Wolfram Research

     Christine Herron

     Principal, First Round Capital

     Robert J. Zimmer

     President, University of Chicago

     Check out the 2010 speaker lineup and register online at: www.technologyreview.com/emtech

     Register by July 31st and save $400!

     Enter code TRSub on Step 2 when registering online at www.technologyreview.com/reg1.

     Contents

     Vo lum e 1 1 3 , N um ber 4

     The growing threat of cyber crime, espionage, and warfare.

     By DaViD Ta lb oT

     36 Moore??s Outlaws

     ?ö www.technologyreview.com/cybersecurity Watch a video about worsening security and the risk of cyber war.

     44 Can AIDS Be Cured?

     covEr

     researchers are pursuing radical new strategies to eliminate HiV from the body.

     By Jo N C o He N

     Photo illustration by Jana Leon

     By K eViN bulliS

     Suntech Ceo Zhengrong Shi made China a powerhouse in photovoltaics. Now he plans to make solar power as cheap as conventional electricity.

     ?ö www.technologyreview.com/suntech Hear the CTO of Suntech

     52 Solar??s Great Leap Forward

     photo Essay

     The da Vinci robot can shorten surgical recovery times. By Emily Singer

     BriEfing

     28 Robot in the OR

     explain the company??s advanced solar technology.

     59?C70

     8 Letters 10 From the Editor

     notEBooks

     graphiti

     Cyber attacks are inspiring new defenses for networks, personal computers, and smart phones.

     rEviEws

     Computer Security

     24 The Global

     Broadband Spectrum

     1 Militarizing 2

     To preserve the open Internet, we must stop the cyber arms race. By Ronald Deibert

     Cyberspace

     A detailed chart shows which countries have fast broadband and which don??t. By Tommy McCall and Matt Mahoney

     72 America??s Broadband

     The FCC aims to bring the country??s Internet access up to speed. By Bobbie Johnson

     Dilemma

     1 Preventing HIV 2

     74 The Argument

     A drug to slow the decline is on the horizon, some researchers say. Others don??t believe it. By Karen Weintraub

     over Aging

     We should treat high-risk populations before they have been exposed. By Robert Grant

     14 Photovoltaics

     Solar panels are cheap enough to become a major component of green energy. By Ken Zweibel

     to MarkEt

     Come of Age

     76 The German

     Experiment

     A decade ago, the German government set a premium price on alternative power sources. By Evan I. Schwartz

     hack

     1 7?C22

     Technology Commercialized

     Q&a

     A robot to help with weight loss, personal AC, solar recharger, portable hotspot, pocket-sized bomb detector, electric delivery vehicle, and more.

     The Apollo astronaut says: forget the moon, let??s colonize Mars. By Brittany Sauser

     26 Buzz Aldrin

     78 iPad 3G

     A peek inside the tablet reveals how it connects to the world. By Erica Naone

     ?ö www.technologyreview.com/ hack See an interactive version.

     4

     t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w j u l y / a u g u s t 2010

     Can tactile computing prevent a car accident?

     28

     DEMo

     Displays

     80 Inexpensive, Unbreakable

     Researchers at Hewlett-Packard are making silicon electronics on rolls of plastic. The result could be flexible, cheap displays. By Katherine Bourzac

     ?ö www.technologyreview.com/ demo Watch a video of HP??s printing process in action.

     Find the latest computing research in IEEE Xplore

     Wherever you ?nd the most advanced computing technology, chances are you??ll ?nd the IEEE Xplore digital library. That??s because IEEE Xplore is ?lled with cutting-edge research?ªfrom software engineering and parallel architecture, to tactile computing that can help

     froM thE LaBs

     84 Materials 85 Information Technology 86 Biomedicine

     26 yEars ago in TR

     you avoid a car accident. When it comes to computing, the research that matters is in IEEE Xplore. See for yourself. Read ??Tactile and Multisensory Spatial Warning Signals for Drivers,?? only in IEEE Xplore. Try IEEE Xplore free?ª visit www.ieee.org/preventingaccidents

     When researchers found the cause of AIDS in the early 1980s, their work had only just begun. By Matt Mahoney

     88 The Long Fight Ahead

     IEEE Xplore? Digital Library

     Information driving innovation

     w w w . t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w . c o m

     Jason Pontin

     editorial

     Editor in Chief and Publisher

     Corporate

     Rick Crowley James Coyle

     Chief Financial Officer Chief Operating Officer Chief Strategy Officer Executive Assistant

     Customer serviCe and subsCription inquiries

     Europe

     David Rotman Lee Caulfield David Talbot

     Chief Correspondent Art Director

     Editor

     Kathleen Kennedy Leila Snyder

     Alice Dragoon Emily Singer

     Senior Editor, MIT News Senior Editor, Biomedicine Senior Editor,

    Special Projects Computing Editor Energy Editor Materials Science Editor

     Manager of Information Technology

     Colby Wheeler

     National: 800-877-5230 International: 818-487-2088 E-mail: technologyreview@ pubservice.com www.technologyreview.com/ customerservice MIT Records: 617-253-8270 (alums only) Permissions: Jennifer Martin jmartin@wrightsreprints.com 877-652-5295, ext. 104

     advertising sales

     Anthony Fitzgerald

     mail@afitzgerald.co.uk 44-1488-680623

     France

     Philippe Marquezy

     philippe.marquezy@ espacequadri.com 33-1-4270-0008

     Germany

     Michael Hanke

     China

     michael.hanke@heise.de 49-511-5352-167

     Linda Cardinal

     marketing

     Office Representative

     RP Soong

     India

     Stephen Cass

     Midwest Sales Director and National Print Strategist

     rpsoong@mittrchinese.com 010-8280-9083

     Tom Simonite Kevin Bullis

     Amy Lammers

     Manager, Marketing and Events

     Maureen Elmaleh

     maureen.elmaleh@technologyreview.com 303-975-6381

     Aninda Sen

     Japan

     David A. Schmidt

     Associate Manager, Advertising Operations Associate Art Director,

    Marketing and Custom Publishing

     West Coast Sales Director and National Digital Strategist

     anindas@cybermedia.co.in 91-80-43412000

     Patrick Viera

     Shigeru Kobayashi

     Katherine Bourzac Linda Lowenthal Timothy Maher Matt Mahoney Erica

    Naone

     Assistant Editor Editorial Assistant Research Editor Copy Editor

    Copy Chief

     patrick.viera@technologyreview.com 415-659-2982

     shig-koby@media-jac.co.jp 813-3261-4591

     Andrew Memmelaar

     New York and Northeast

     Spain and South America (Online)

     Consumer marketing

     Johanna Zottarelli-Duffe

     Pedro Moneo La?ªn

     Heather Holmes Tina Bellomy

     FinanCe

     Vice President of Circulation and Consumer Marketing Fulfillment

    Manager

     jo.duffe@technologyreview.com 857-998-9241

     pedro.moneo@opinno.com 34-667-732-894

     New England, Detroit, and Canada

     Barry Echavarria

     International Licensing Consultant

     barry.echavarria@technologyreview.com 603-924-7586

     Chander Rai

     Mid-Atlantic and Southeast

     Kristina Grifantini Angela Tieri

     Assistant Designer Production Director

     Clive Bullard

     Northwest

     Advertising Services

     webcreative@ technologyreview.com 617-475-8004

     Letitia Trecartin Tim Curran

     board oF direCtors

     Accountants

     cbullards@cs.com 845-231-0846

     James LaBelle

     Steve Thompson

     Media Kit

     Simson Garfinkel Mark Williams

     Contributing Editors

     stevet@mediacentricinc.com 415-435-4678

     www.technologyreview.com/ media

     teChnologyreview.Com

     David Foucher Will Knight

     Managing Editor Design Director

     Vice President, Online

     Reid Ashe Judith M. Cole Jerome I. Friedman Theresa M. Stone Sheila E. Widnall Ann J. Wolpert

     Technology Review

     One Main Street, 7th Floor Cambridge MA 02142 Tel: 617-475-8000 Fax: 617-475-8043

     Conrad Warre Brittany Sauser

     Web Developers Senior Web Producer

     Technology Review, inc., identifies

     Michael Callahan Shaun Calhoun Sarah Redman

     De Technologia non multum scimus. Scimus autem, quid nobis placeat.

     emerging technologies and analyzes their impact for technology leaders. Technology Review publishes Technology Review magazine (the oldest technology magazine in the world, founded in 1899) and the daily website TechnologyReview.com; it also produces live events such as the EmTech Conference. Technology Review is an independent media company owned by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The views expressed in our various publications and at our events are often not shared by MIT.

     t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w j u l y / a u g u s t 2010

     6

     innovation

     Technology Innovation for Intelligence Dominance

     The National Reconnaissance Office Director??s Innovation Initiative (DII) Program nurtures innovative concepts and creative ideas to transform intelligence to revolutionize systems and capabilities for future intelligence needs. The program funds the brightest minds, best ideas, and break through technology from individuals in industry, academia, national laboratories, and other U.S. government agencies. Log onto the DII website for proposal guidance, frequently asked questions, history, and BAA and GSSA requirements.

     lead

     DII research funding supports cutting-edge scientific research in a high-risk, high-payoff environment.

     http://dii5.westfields.net

     letters and comments

     grading our predictions read about the subject. Public opinion on I always enjoy reading the new-technologies the Internet has made a difference, from article (??10 Emerging Technologies 2010,?? the revelation of the corrupt Nanjing offiMay/June 2010). It would be cial to the acquittal of Deng Yujiao. But its impact can interesting to see how well be overstated. I haven??t seen your predictions over the evidence that online discusyears have done. What percentage are on track? Do you sions have changed any major do better in certain fields? If policies. Nor have they led to it turns out you are good at investigations of anyone other this, maybe you could sell than marginal officials. Also, your picks. the impact of Google??s partial withdrawal from China Ed Macho May/June ??10 Hilton Head Island, SC may not have had as much of an effect as we think on Chinese residents. In fact, to many ChiWhile we haven??t formally looked at how well our predictions have done, we may do so in the nese users, the ??War of Internet Addiction?? future. Thanks for the suggestion! ?ªEditors video, which satirizes the regulatory battles over the approval of World of Warcraft and dreams of the future the government??s 2009 attempts to ??cure?? I find every issue of Technology Review Internet addiction, probably had more of useful in more ways than one. First, it??s an impact. always provocative reading. Second, it Bill Bishop Beijing, China provides ample material to inspire my boys with technological dreams of the future: OLED lights, 3-D smart phones, jet packs, the impact of e-books renewable solar fuels, green concrete, and There??s a lot wrong with your review of implantable electronics, to name a few. And e-book readers (??Going Out of Print,?? May/ to top it off, a novel chart of U.S. energy June 2010), beginning with the assumption flows that I will be using in the next lecture that print will go the way of the CD. Accordfor my global-warming class. ing to a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey David Lea published by the Financial Times on FebruSanta Barbara, CA ary 9, the impact of e-readers is expected to rise in the United States from about 1 perchina and the web cent of sales in 2008 to about 6 percent in As a Beijing-based tech entrepreneur and 2013. Books and music are not analogous. blogger at Digicha.com, I thought David The traditional publishing industry is Talbot??s ??China??s Internet Paradox?? (May/ beset by many woes, including its inabilJune 2010) was one of the best articles I??ve ity to agree upon a digital strategy, but the e-reader is not the chief culprit. I discussed the plight of the publishing industry and its join the discussion, or contact us probable outcome in a recent issue of the ?ö technologyreview.com/community New York Review of Books. e-mail letters@technologyreview.com Jason Epstein write Technology Review, One Main Street, New York, NY 7th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02142 fax

    617-475-8043 The author is the creator of the trade paperPlease include your address, telephone number, back and cofounder of the New York Review and e-mail address. Letters may be edited for of Books. ?ªEditors both clarity and length.

     I agree that newspapers and magazines could profit by offering professional design and writing, but books may be different. It is much easier to self-publish today than ever before, but publishers still offer professional editing, art, and marketing, and I??m not sure how a self-published author would obtain those services. And if costs of materials, printing, and shipping are reduced through digital publishing, do publishers really lose money at $9.99? mwilson1962 (Mark Wilson, Rochester, NY)

     www

     Publishers will only survive if they evolve their business model instead of forcing Amazon to charge more than $9.99 for Kindle books. These publishers are rushing blindly down the same path as the recording industry, maintaining an outmoded business model. The resulting piracy will be devastating to agents, publishers, and, worse, authors. rttedrow (Richard Tedrow, Bethesda, MD)

     u.s. competitiveness

     Good Q&A with Paul Otellini (May/June 2010). He should be commended for bringing up the decline of innovation. However, I take issue with his assertion that U.S. corporate tax rates are among the highest of developed countries. After all the tax breaks and generous loopholes, the tax rate for U.S. corporations is among the lowest in the developed world. outsider (Subramani Iyer, San Jose, CA) Otellini scratches the surface of problems facing U.S. companies. When I started in business years ago, government-funded research could be counted on, but for the last decade we??ve been ruled by those interested in gaming financial systems rather than supporting competitiveness. Corporate execs increase short-term profits by outsourcing jobs to foreign countries. Most of the competent engineers I??ve known employed by U.S. companies were let go in their 50s, when they can be most productive in creating the next generations of technologies. fiberman (Jim Hayes, Fallbrook, CA)

     8

     letters and comments

     t e ch n o l o g y r e v i e w j u l y / a u g u s t 2010

     Tomorrow??s business tools at your ?ngertips.

     Visit Technology R eview??s

     ??Of?ce of the Future??

     Special Report to learn about the technologies that will power the of?ce of tomorrow.

     www.technologyreview.com/ootf

     Sponsored By

     from the editor

     On Risk

     how should technologists think about precautions?

     have been thinking about risk. As I write this column in early June, British Petroleum is still struggling to contain its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. After the company??s drilling rig, Deepwater Horizon, exploded on April 20, as many as 19,000 barrels of oil (or as much as 800,000 gallons) spewed into the Gulf every day. A cap is now capturing a little more than 400,000 gallons a day. It is the worst environmental disaster in the history of the United States, but there may be no solution until BP completes two ??relief wells?? in August. In this issue of Technology Review, David Talbot writes about the increasing incidence of cyber crime and espionage, and the real (if still speculative) risk of outright cyber warfare. In ??Moore??s Outlaws?? (p. 36), he quotes Stewart Baker, the former general counsel of the National Security Agency and a former policy chief at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security: ??What we??ve been seeing, over the last decade or so, is that Moore??s Law is working more for the bad guys than the good guys. It??s really ??Moore??s outlaws?? who are winning this fight. Code is more complex, and that means more opportunity to exploit the code. There is more money to be made in exploiting the code, and that means there are more and more sophisticated people looking to exploit vulnerabilities. If you look at things like malware found, or attacks, or the size of the haul people are pulling in, there is an exponential increase.?? Talbot describes experts?? concerns that computer viruses have made millions of machines into ??enslaved armies???ªbotnets?ª awaiting instruction by malefactors. In the days leading up to April 1, 2009, a worm called Conficker was expected to receive an update from its unknown creator, but no one knew what: ??A tweak to Conficker??s code might cause the three million or so machines ???? to start attacking the servers of some company or government network, vomit out billions of pieces of spam, or just improve the worm??s own ability to propagate.?? It??s scary stuff. In the first case, a complex system of technologies (whose purpose is to extract crude oil five miles under the ocean??s surface) failed; in the second, a more complex system (a global computer network whose purposes are incomprehensibly various, but upon which our technological civilization depends) is failing. These failures are not so much predictable as unsurprising. We expanded our use of vulnerable technologies, because we were dependent upon them. How should we think about the risks inherent in technologies, particularly new technologies?

     I

     One possible intellectual tool, popular with environmentalists and

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