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What do we expect from this conference

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S3P2: Investment requirements under new demands on agriculture due to climate change and bioenergy: (i) What are the additional investment requirements to

    Expert Meeting on “How to Feed the World in 2050”

    FAO Headquarters, Rome, 24-26 June 2009

    Concept Note and Programme (preliminary)

Background

    In the first half of this century, global demand for food, feed and fibre will nearly double while, increasingly, crops may also be used for bioenergy and other industrial purposes. New and traditional demand for agricultural produce will thus put growing pressure on already scarce agricultural resources. And while agriculture will be forced to compete for land and water with sprawling urban settlements, it will also be required to serve on other major fronts: adapting and contributing to the mitigation of climate change, helping preserve natural habitats, protecting endangered species and maintaining a high level of biodiversity. As though this were not challenging enough, fewer people will be living in rural areas and even less will be farmers. They will need new technologies to grow more food from less land, with fewer hands.

    This scenario raises a number of important questions. For instance, will we be able to produce enough food at affordable prices or will rising food prices drive more of the world’s

    population into poverty and hunger? How much spare capacity in terms of land and water do we have to feed the world in 2050? What are the new technologies that can help us use scarce resources more efficiently and increase crop yields?

    Assuming we can make technical progress, are we investing enough in research and development for breakthroughs to be available in time? Will new technologies be available to the people who will need them most the poor? How much do we need to invest in order to

    help agriculture adapt to climate change, and how much can agriculture contribute to mitigating extreme weather events?

Finally, do we have the right policies to help ensure that the world’s future needs are met?

    Are trade and support policies, ODA and other sources of support sufficient and properly focused to feed the world better over the coming decades? What are priority areas for policy action and where are the present and future hot-spots where policy action is needed most urgently? What can be done to ensure food security in sub-Saharan Africa, the continent facing the highest population growth rates, the severest impacts from climate change and the heaviest burden of HIV/AIDS?

    These questions will be discussed, and hopefully answered, at a High-Level Conference (HLC) to be hosted by FAO in October 2009. The HLC will take the form of a Forum and be organized around six panel sessions focusing on the following topics:

1. The outlook for food and agriculture in a dynamically changing economic and

    demographic environment.

    2. Available resources (land, water, genetics), limits and challenges from climate change

    and new demands (bioenergy).

    3. The technological challenge.

    4. Investment needs, sources and instruments.

    5. The policy challenge: investment, trade, support, ODA and more.

    6. Special session on Africa.

    In preparation for the HLC, FAO will host an expert meeting on 24-26 June 2009 to prepare technical background documentation.

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    Programme

    Expert Meeting on

    How to Feed the World in 2050”

    FAO Headquarters, Rome, 24-26 June 2009 (Mexico Room)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Chair: Pingali (Gates Foundation), TBC

    Rapporteur: Huddleston, TBC

    Expected number of participants: 30 to 40.

Opening, registration, welcome: Wednesday, 24 June

11:00: Registration

    12:30: Light lunch

? Welcome address [Hafez Ghanem, ADG-ES, FAO]

    ? Presentation of main results of the June HLC on bioenergy, climate change and food

    security [Alexander Müller, ADG-NR, FAO]

    Session 1, Wednesday, 24 June (14:00 17:30) - Global agriculture to 2050: How will the world’s food and agriculture sector develop in a dynamically changing economic

    and resource environment?

S1P1: The macroeconomic environment for agriculture and rural areas to develop over the

    next 50 years [Development Prospects Group, World Bank, TBC]. This paper includes an

    assessment of the long-term impacts of the current financial crisis (specifically the resource

    availability for (i) agricultural development, (ii) adaptation to and mitigation of climate change,

    (iii) investment in agriculture and rural areas, (iv) food security).

    S1P2: The CIRAD-INRA Foresight study on world food and agricultural systems in 2050

    [CIRAD, Dorin]

    S1P3: World agriculture towards 2050, FAO’s long-term projections for food and agriculture [FAO-ESAG, Alexandratos/Bruinsma/Schmidhuber]

    S1P4: Agriculture in a dynamically changing environment: IFPRI’s long-term outlook for

    food and agriculture under pressure from new demands and added constraints [IFPRI,

    Msangi/Rosegrant]

    Additional background papers:

    S1P41: Short-term swings and long-term trends in global food markets [FAO-

    ESAG, Alexandratos]

    Session 2 (part 1), Thursday, 25 June (09:00 12:30) - The resource base and the technology challenge to 2050: Will there be enough land, water and genetic potential

    as well as enough technological progress to meet future food and biofuel demands?

S2P1: The resource outlook: How much land, water and yield potential is left and how much

    more can be tapped by 2050? [FAO-ESAG, Bruinsma/Alexandratos]

    S2P2: How do climate change and bioenergy alter the long-term outlook for food, agriculture

    and resource availability? [IIASA, G. Fischer]

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Session 2 (part 2): The technology challenge to 2050

S2P3: Investment in agricultural technology: What are the key areas for the future

    (management practices, biotechnology, increased adoption of existing technologies,

    spillovers, etc.), who can deliver what technologies. TFP growth in agriculture: What are the

    technology options for raising yields and total factor productivity? How can developing

    countries better harness the benefits of new technologies in the future? [World Bank,

    Byerlee/T. Fischer/Edmeades]

    S2P4: Is there enough investment in agricultural R&D? By whom (developed vs. developing,

    public vs. private), where (favoured vs. marginal areas, large scale vs. small) and what for

    (genetic improvements, water efficiency, soil conservation, machinery), etc. [IFPRI,

    Beintema/Elliot]

    Session 3, Thursday, 25 June (14:00 17:30) - The investment challenge to 2050: How much, where to invest, what priorities and what sources?

S3P1: Investment needs to 2050: What are the financial resources needed to meet future

    food and fibre needs? An investment gap assessment to 2050 based on FAO’s long-term

    outlook for global agriculture [FAO-ESAG, Tanyeri-Abur/Alexandratos/Bruinsma/

    Schmidhuber]

    S3P2: Investment requirements under new demands on agriculture due to climate change

    and bioenergy: (i) What are the additional investment requirements to meet growing fuel

    demands on agriculture: an investment assessment under high fuel prices; (ii) What are the

    additional investment requirements to rise to the challenges of adaptation and mitigation

    under climate change? [IFPRI, Msangi/Rosegrant]

    S3P3: Investing in developing countries’ agriculture: priorities, problems and needs to 2050 [University of Göttingen, deHaen/Cramon]

    S3P4: Direct foreign investment in land: A threat to or an option for improved food security?

    [FAO-EST]

    S3P5: Foreign direct investment and other forms of TNC participation in agricultural

    production [UNCTAD, Mirza/Miroux]

    Session 4, Friday, 26 June (09:00 15:30) - Feeding the world in 2050: the global policy challenge and Africa’s special role, problems and needs

S4P1: Trade and support policies to 2050: What can we expect from freer trade and a

    growing globalization in food and agriculture? How can future trade negotiations help ensure

    global food security? Do we have the right trade and support policies in place to promote and

    foster international food security? [FAO-EST]

    S4P2: Synchronizing trade liberalization, development and aid to 2050. [OECD, HLM, May]

    S4P3: The role of non-distortionary support for long-term agricultural development: What are the policy options to help to provide more support to agriculture, ensure incomes for

    farmers comparable to those earned by workers in manufacturing and services without

    distorting international trade? [FAO-EST]

    S4P4: How can Africa master its multiple development challenges of high population growth,

    climate change and HIV/AIDS? [Tshwane University, Binswanger]

    What development model for Africa?

    S4P41: Can the smallholder model deliver poverty reduction and food security for a

    rapidly growing population in Africa? [ODI, Wiggins]

    S4P42: Can large-scale agriculture provide a new development paradigm for African

    agriculture? [Oxford University, Collier/Dercon]

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Concluding discussion, outlook and brief summary of the chair

Expected outcomes

? Background papers to be tabled at the HLC in October 2009

    ? Basis for a synthesis paper, a shorter executive paper, a technical summary including six

    two-page fact sheets, a summary for policy makers and a declaration of independent 12experts on “How to Feed the World in 2050” ? Key messages for the presentations at the HLC in October 2009

    ? Identification of six presenters for the HLC in October 2009

     1 The declaration is one of independent experts, not a consensus-based declaration of FAO member countries. 2 One may consider bundling the synthesis and background papers into one volume to be published separately as

    the proceedings of the expert meeting.

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