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Canada Country Study Phase 1 SWOT analysis

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Figure 1: Canada SWOT analysis. Part II CANADIAN INTERESTS AND SCENARIOS. A: Canadian National Interests. Guesswork is not needed to determine Canadian

    INTER-AMERICAN DEFENSE COLLEGE

    DEPARTMENT OF STUDIES

    CLASS XLVIII

    CANADA

    COUNTRY STUDY

    TEAM MEMBERS

     COR HUMBERTO GUATIBONZA

     LT. COR. JOHN KARA

     CAP. FRAG. CESAR OLIVARES

    23 FEBRUARY 09

CONTENTS PAGE TABLE OF CONTENTS

    ANTECEDENTS………………………………………………………………..… 3

    PART I SWOT ANALYSIS………………………………………...………… 4

    A. STRENGTHS…………………………………………………….. 4

    B. WEAKNESSES………………………………………………….. 7

    C. THREATS……………...………………………………………… 8

    D. OPPORTUNITIES………………………………………………. 9

    PARTE II CANADIAN INTERESTS AND SCENARIOS...………………….. 12

    A. INTERESTS...……………………………………………………. 12

    B. SCENARIO………………………………………………………. 13

    1. OPTIMISTICS…………………………………………... 14

    2. PESSIMISTICS………………………….…………….... 15

    3. MEDIAN…………………………………………………. 17

    PART III PLANS AND PROGRAMS………………………….……………… 18

    A. NATIONAL INTEGRITY………...……………..……………… 18

    B. PUBLIC SECURITY…………………………………………….. 19

    C. BORDER SECURITY…………………………………………… 19

    D. MILITARY MODERNIZATION………………….…………… 19

    E. ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY……………………………… 20

    CONCLUSION………………………………………………………….………… 20

    22 WORKS CITED…………………………………………………………..

    ANNEX I MAP……………………………………………………………………. 23

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    CANADA COUNTRY STUDY

    Antecedents

    The name Canada comes from the Iroquois word for town, establishment or set of cabins, referring to the site that is now the city of Quebec. The explorer Jacques Cartier

    discovered Canada. Initially populated by native Inuit, First Nation, and Métis peoples

    (ONLINE--thecommonwealth.org), many French and British citizens emigrated to Canada;

    the competition between these two countries was resolved after the Seven Year‘s War,

    when the Treaty of Paris gave control of Canada to England in 1763 (Marston 2002, 84).

    At that time most of the population was French but in the following decades thousands of British colonists emigrated to Canada from the British Islands and the

    American colonies. In 1873 a parliamentary federal government was established under the

    British crown. Canada was proclaimed an independent dominion within the British Empire

    in December of 1931. The British crown became monarch of Canada. The British

    parliament granted direct authority to the Canadian parliament to run day-to-day operations,

    although important legal decisions were still made back in the United Kingdom. Canada

    finally obtained its constitutional autonomy in 1982.

    Canada is a federation under a system of parliamentary monarchy. They are ruled by Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain, who is represented by the Governor General, a

    symbolic figure with no real authority. Executive authority lies with the prime minister,

    who is generally the leader of the political party with the greatest number of benches in the

    House of Commons. The prime minister in turn names his cabinet positions from the

    House (Enciso 2007, 104).

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    Canada has three political parties in which the majority of power is concentrated;

    they include the centrist Liberal Party, the right-leaning Conservative Party, and the left-

    leaning New Democratic Party. A fourth player of note, the Bloc Québécois, is a regional

    party in Quebec, who supports a separatist position, and generally represents those of

    French heritage (ONLINECIA World Factbook). The liberal party has governed during

    32 of the last 42 years of political life in Canada.

    Canada is divided into ten provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New

    Brunswick, Newfoundland and Farmer, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and

    Saskatchewan. There are also three territories: the Northwest, the Yukon, and Nunavut.

    Canada covers most of the North American continent with a surface area slightly

    greater than that of the United States (Annex I Map). Canada shares an 8,893 kilometer

    border with the same, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in

    the west. Canada covers 41% of North America and has the second most surface area of

    any country on Earth (ONLINE--CIA World Factbook). It has a varied topography and is

    rich in natural resources. Canada has huge reserves of oil and large quantities of fresh

    water sixty percent of the world‘s lakes are in Canada. The southern part of the country boasts a robust agricultural sector. (Michel, 2003)

Part I: SWOT ANALYSIS

    A -- Strengths

    This analysis will begin with an examination of Canada‘s internal strengths and weaknesses. In this era of non-traditional threats to national security, Canada‘s geographic

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location is one of its greatest strengths. Canada enjoys the natural protection of the harsh

    arctic climate to the north; to the west and east lie equally forbidding landscapes in the

    form of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Finally, to the south lies the robust security of the

    United States, significantly enhanced since the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

    In addition to the natural protection of its borders, Canada enjoys the security benefits of membership in NATO. Initially formed after World War II to resist

    Communism, NATO stands as an unequalled military coalition now that the Soviet Union

    has disappeared. Although NATO is less united than it has been in the past, the

    disappearance of the imminent threat of nuclear war is a welcome improvement in security

    around the globe.

    The defining aspect of Canada‘s membership in NATO is its close military alliance

    with the United States, especially the joint operations with NORAD. In 2004, Canada

    added its missile warning capabilities to NORAD (Canada‘s International Policy Statement

    2005, 22). Canada renewed its working agreement with the US in May 2006, and with that

    agreement NORAD added the mission of maritime warning (Canada First Defence Strategy

    2008, 8). A strong commitment to cooperation and interoperability with US forces and

    NORAD will ensure a future of enhanced security for Canada.

    After twelve consecutive years of liberal party control of the Canadian government, the conservative party won the election in 2006, running on a platform of increased security

    and a modernized military. Security enhancements began after the attacks of 9/11, a full

    five years before power was handed over to the opposition party; therefore, completion of

    security enhancement plans can be expected to succeed regardless of ruling party.

    Increased security includes the establishment of two new Maritime Security Operations

    Centers in Halifax and Esquimalt, which will enhance monitoring and security of arctic

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waters (Canada‘s International Policy Statement 2005, 16). Among many programs,

    another of note is the creation of an Integrated Threat Assessment Centre, which will

    greatly enhance Canadian intelligence (Ibid.). The Canada First Defense Strategy outlines

    a twenty year plan to increase military manning and recapitalize nearly every major war

    machine in the Army, Navy and Air Force (Canada First Defense Strategy 2008).

    In addition to military measures, a comprehensive security plan was laid out in the

    2004 National Security Policy. It includes details of the creation of a new governmental

    department overseeing Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (Canada 2004 NSS, 9),

    a new executive Cabinet Committee on Security, Public Health and Emergencies to

    coordinate and direct national efforts (Ibid.), and a National Security Advisor to the Prime

    Minister (Ibid.). Other focus areas include border security, international security,

    protection of infrastructure and cyber-security (Canada 2004 NSS). Canada responded to

    the attacks of 9/11 with a comprehensive government overhaul of every aspect of security

    for the Canadian citizen, and this may very well be Canada‘s greatest strength.

    In the economic arena, Canada finds relative strength in the fact that it has minimal

    exposure to toxic US mortgage securities; while the global financial crisis ravages the

    industrialized economies of the world, Canada so far is largely unscathed. Although the

    global slowdown, the US recession, and the strength of the Canadian dollar have all hurt

    the economy (EIU Country Report November 2008, p. 4-7), Canada generally enjoys solid

    budgets, revenue, and debt management. Canada is extremely strong in natural resources,

    especially fresh water, oil, natural gas, and timber (EIU Canada Country Profile 2008, p.

    13). Energy scarcity and climate change stand to increase the value of fresh water and oil

    going forward. Finally, Canada has a strong national ―green‖ interest, which should help

    the country realize green solutions and industries.

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    To summarize, Canada has a strong awareness of its security needs, plans to

    enhance the military and other security apparatus‘, and is abundant in natural resources.

B -- Weaknesses

    One of the strengths listed above reveals a current weakness; the fact that Canada is

    expanding military manning and modernizing its equipment belies the fact that the military

    is overextended, with an aging force structure. This is largely due to budget decisions by

    the governments of the nineties, which focused instead on balancing the budget and

    underfunded the military (Canada First Defense Strategy 2008, 11).

    While this weakness is being addressed, Canada‘s greatest potential weakness is not:

    the persistent threat of Quebec secession. The secessionists are represented by the Bloc

    Quebecois, and in October of 2008 they won 49 of 308 seats in parliament, a number that is

    relatively steady in recent years (EIU Country Report November 2008, 10). The current

    conservative government wooed Quebec strongly, ―offering new provincial powers…and

    pushing a resolution through parliament recognizing Quebec as a ‗nation‘ within Canada‖ (Ibid, 9). These efforts appear to have made little headway, and the Bloc Quebecois has

    already agreed to unite with the Liberal and Green parties to try to oust the ruling

    Conservatives (Palmer and Ljunggren 2008, 1). The problem remains, and although low in

    likelihood, a successful secession would cause a drastic and permanent weakening of

    Canada.

    Another weakness is Canada‘s smaller population – approximately 33 million in 2008 (EIU Canada Country Profile 2008, 2) -- is approximately ten percent of the

    population of the US. Although industrialized, Canada is a relatively small state, with a

    smaller industrial base, military, budget, and revenue. The result is less fiscal flexibility.

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Major projects and changes have to be carefully planned and executed. This weakness is

    magnified when considering national power on the international scene.

    Canada is vulnerable to environmental degradation and pollution spillover, especially from the US. Acid rain has been a hot topic in Canada for decades, and just as

    Canada benefits economically due to its proximity to the US, it suffers the pollution.

    Although less exposed in real estate, Canada is still affected by financial crisis. The Canadian stock market hit a low point of 7647 on 20 November 08, down from a high of

    15154 on 18 June 2008. The market (Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX) is currently at 7949

    (20 Feb 2009). This loss in value is harming the Canadian economy; businesses are at risk,

    personal wealth has dropped, unemployment is up, and government revenues are down.

    This is creating a political opportunity for the opposition, as earlier described.

    Linked to the crisis is the harm to Canadian exports, which are heavily linked to the US economy; Canada exports approximately eighty percent of its goods to the US (EIU

    Canada Country Profile 2008, 26). The US is in a recession, which will hurt Canada‘s

    exports. Canada‘s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to fall slightly in 2009 before

    rebounding in 2010 (Ibid, 14).

    The crisis has caused a sharp fall in commodity prices, which is making it too expensive to harvest the massive oil reserves in the tar sands of Alberta. This development

    has slowed dramatically; it is estimated that oil must fetch 85-95 dollars per barrel before

    these tar sands will be profitable (Levine 2008, 60), and oil is currently selling for

    approximately 40 dollars per barrel. This is creating a weakness for Canada in the short

    term.

C -- Threats

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    Canada clearly laid out its perceived external threats in its April 2004 National Security Policy. It included such traditional threats as terrorism and proliferation of

    weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (Canada 2004 NSS, 6-7). The hazards of failed states

    and foreign espionage are also listed (Ibid, 7). Less traditional threats include natural

    disasters, organized crime, and pandemics (Ibid, 7-8). Canada also lists critical

    infrastructure vulnerability as a threat, including the risk of an electrical blackout and/or

    cyber attack (Ibid, 7). Canada was particularly disturbed by the SARS outbreak, and

    includes pandemics as a threat (Ibid, 8).

    While a close alliance with the United States brings many economic and security benefits for Canada, it also brings increased risk of being pulled into a major or continued

    confrontation with terrorists. Close economic ties could lead to shared devastation if WMD

    are successfully employed on US soil or at a US port; in a worst case scenario, the

    economic disruption and damage from such an attack could last for decades.

    Rising sea levels associated with climate change post a moderate threat to certain parts of Atlantic Canada, such as Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick

    (Solomon and Christian et al, 369), however the threats there are manageable; most of

    Canada‘s coasts are largely undeveloped, and the major urban areas are not particularly

    vulnerable to rising sea levels (Ibid, 370-377).

D -- Opportunities

    In general, the external opportunities that await Canada are more likely to occur than the risks that might manifest from current threats. One of the brightest aspects of the

    coming years is the flexibility available to Canada in its choices of national and

    international priorities. Canada will continue to enjoy a largely ―free ride‖ off the massive

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US security overhauls, which will both keep it safer from traditional threats, as well as

    provide opportunities for the best in military equipment and technology, without the costs

    of research and development. Canada‘s desire to establish international prestige and

    leadership through participation in multilateral United Nations (UN) missions is clearly

    expressed in multiple official security and strategy documents (Canada‘s International

    Policy Statement 2005, 24-26; Canada First Defence Strategy 2008, 8-9; Canada NSS 2004,

    47-52). With the US tending to lose global influence, the years leading to 2020 could

    provide a ripe opportunity for Canada to assume a leadership position either in the

    hemisphere, within NATO, or worldwide through the UN. Recent experience in

    Afghanistan lends credibility and is providing invaluable experience as Canada modernizes

    and recapitalizes its military.

    Canada‘s French heritage creates internal threats and tensions; however, an

    opportunity could exist to help bridge the gap between France and the US, perhaps

    revitalizing NATO and bringing a renewed unity and identity to ―the West‖. Regardless,

    enhanced military capability and shared benefits of increased US security will give Canada

    the freedom to pursue a wide range of interests at home or abroad.

    Although its economy is smaller and less robust than some developed nations, the

    future is bright for Canada, for its reserves in fresh water and oil stand to provide strong

    revenue streams and growth in the future. Although its development is currently delayed

    due to reduced oil prices, there are vast oil reserves in the sands of Alberta, to the tune of

    175 billion barrels of oil, second only to Saudi Arabia (Levine 2008, 60). Increasing global

    population and energy consumption mean a prosperous future for Canada.

    As previously stated, a unique benefit of Canada‘s near future is flexibility; Canada

    has not tended to seek global influence and leadership. If Canada were to wish a return to

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