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CPUC Greenhouse Gas Modeling

By Timothy Harris,2014-04-18 05:30
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(2) In addition to specified imports of renewable energy where the supplier is known, Current Renewable Energy Levels and 2020 RPS Target by Region

RPS v2 CPUC GHG Modeling 11/1/2007

CPUC Greenhouse Gas Modeling

    Renewable Portfolio Standards Assumptions

Role of Renewable Portfolio Standards in the GHG Model

    Many states in the West have legislated renewable portfolio standards (RPS), which generally require that a certain percentage of either the state, or investor-owned utilities‟

    electricity sales must come from a renewable energy source. In the greenhouse gas (GHG) model, these RPS are used to determine the minimum amount of renewable energy that will be developed in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) regions by 12020, based on the assumption that states will meet their RPS requirement. This is

    important for the GHG model in two ways: (1) In 2020, the model assumes that California can import renewable energy from from other WECC regions only to the extent that the available renewable power is in excess of the region‟s own consumption. The RPS in each region thus represents the minimum level of self-consumption of renewable energy within that region. (2) In addition to specified imports of renewable energy where the supplier is known, California also imports electricity where the supplier is unspecified, and GHG emissions in some methodologies are assigned to LSEs based on the supply mix from the exporting region. The RPS level helps to determine the emission intensity of the regional mix.

    Renewable Portfolio Standards by WECC Zone

    Table 1 below describes the reference case assumptions for Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) included in the GHG analysis. RPS levels are developed for each of eleven WECC regions, plus California, used in this analysis. The eleven regions are chosen on the basis of transmission system topology, but also are generally consistent with state boundaries (see the “Load Forecast” report for more details about these

    regions).

    Table 1 shows two values for each region. The first is a production-simulation model based estimate of existing renewable (RPS-qualifying) generation in 2008. The second value in Table 1 for each region is an RPS target for that region in 2020, which is used in the GHG model reference case. The final row of Table 1 shows a WECC-wide 2020

    RPS target of 15 percent. This is the load-weighted average result for all eleven regions. These RPS estimates are made by E3 on the basis of legislated targets and stated policy goals, and are adjusted to reflect the fact that some of the regions in the West combine portions of electricity load from several states with different RPS targets. In states where RPS legislation does not apply to all utilities, (for example, many states‟ RPS only apply

    to investor-owned utilities), the weighted 2020 targets reflect this distinction. The weighted RPS was calculated based on utility electricity sales data from the DOE Energy Information Agency 2005 Electric Sales and Revenue Report. A minimum standard of

     1 WECC refers to the electricity interconnection among the 13 western-most U.S. states plus the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta and northern Baja California.

RPS.v2 CPUC GHG Modeling 4/18/2010

    5% is applied to jurisdictions where no current RPS exists, with the exception of CFE,

    Mexico, which is given an RPS of zero in 2020. The important exception is California, where the GHG model “business-as-usual

    reference case assumes that the 20 percent RPS applies to all utilities, including investor-

    owned and municipally-owned utilities, Community Choice Aggregators and Electric

    Service Providers. Likewise, 33 percent RPS is assumed to apply to all utilities in the

    „aggressive policy‟ reference case. Despite the fact that Senate Bill 107 requires that

    only the investor-owned utilities meet at least 20 percent of their sales with renewable

    energy resources by 2010, many of the municipally-owned utilities have set their own

    RPS targets at similar levels. Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) 2aims to achieve a 20 percent RPS by 2010, and 35 percent by 2020. Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) has set the goal of achieving a 20 percent RPS by 32011. In addition, members of the Northern California Power Agency and many

    municipally owned utilities in Southern California have committed to reaching 20 percent 4RPS by 2017. Given these commitments, it seems reasonable to set California‟s business-as-usual‟ reference case RPS at 20 percent in 2020. Likewise, the „aggressive

    policy‟ scenario reflects the State‟s Energy Action Plan II, which calls for 33 percent 5renewable energy by 2020. Table 1 below reflects the 20 percent RPS assumption for all

    of California in the „business-as-usualreference case.

    Table 1. Current Renewable Energy Levels and 2020 RPS

    Target by Region

    Alberta 7.5% 15.5% Kralovic and Alberta has a voluntary RPS goal

    Mutysheva, and is assumed to meet this target

    2006 by 2020. Arizona-0.7% 13.2% DSIRE 2007 Value is average of NV and AZ Southern RPS targets, weighted by 2005 Nevada load in all of AZ and for the 3

    southernmost utilities in NV

    (Boulder City, Harney Coop, &

    NV Power Company). NV RPS is

    20% for 2015. Assumed constant

    through 2020.

    AZ RPS interpolated. RES

    requires utilities obtain (RECs) to

    meet 1.25% of their retail load

    2006, rising to 15% by 2025.

     2 See LADWP‟s Renewable Energy Policy website: http://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/cms/ladwp005864.jsp 3 See the “2007 Status report on Renewable Energy at SMUD,” http://www.smud.org/about/reports-pdfs/2007StatusRenewableEnergy.pdf 4 See, for example, NCPA member Tom Habashi‟s testimony before the Senate Energy, Utilities and Communication Committee, February 6, 2007:

    http://www.sen.ca.gov/ftp/SEN/COMMITTEE/STANDING/ENERGY/_home/02-06-07NCPA.htm 5 California Energy Action Plan II: Implementation Roadmap for Energy Policies, September 21, 2005, page 6.

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    British 0.0% 13.4% 2002 BC 2002 BC Energy Plan required Columbia Energy Plan electricity distributors to pursue a

    voluntary goal to acquire 50

    percent of new supply from BC

    Clean Electricity over the next 10

    years. Based on BC Hydro

    Electric load forecast, this would

    amount to 11.9% of BC total

    electricity sales after accounting

    for DSM. CFE, Mexico 0.0% Comision Federal de Electricidad

    in, Mexico is not assigned an

    RPS. California 10.3% 20.0% AB 107 and Existing law requires investor

    CA Energy owned utilities to meet a target of

    Action Plan II 20% of retail sales by 2010. A

    33% target is proposed in the

    CPUC/CEC Energy Action Plan

    II, but this has not yet been

    adopted into law or regulation.

    See discussion in the text for

    elaboration. Colorado 7.4% 15.6% DSIRE 2007 RPS differs for IOUs and electric

    cooperatives and municipal

    utilities: 20% for IOUs by 2020,

    and 10% for cooperatives and

    large munis (>40,000 customers)

    by 2020. This value is average for

    IOUs and coops and munis,

    weighted by 2005 electric sales

    (MWh). Montana 10.1% 12.2% DSIRE 2007 RPS applies to IOUs, with targets

    of 5% in 2008; 10% in 2010; 15%

    in 2015. New Mexico 4.6% 15.8% DSIRE 2007 Value calculated as average of

    20% RPS for IOUs and 10% RPS

    for cooperatives by 2020,

    weighted by 2005 load.

    Northern 9.9% 20.0% DSIRE 2007 6% RPS in 2005, rising to 20% by Nevada 2015. Northwest 9.6% 14.4% DSIRE 2007 Value calculated as 2005 load

    weighted average of : 15% RPS

    for Washington by 2020 (only for

    utilities with >25,000 customers;

    represents 13% RPS based on

    large utilities share of 2005 load)

    and

    5% to 20% RPS for Oregon by

    2020 (varies by size of utility;

    20% RPS for utilities with >3% of

    total state load; 10% RPS for

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    utilities with 1.5-3% of total state

    load; 5% RPS for utilities with

    1.5% of total state load.) Utah-Southern 4.7% 5.0% DSIRE 2007 No binding RPS currently for UT Idaho or ID. Base RPS has been

    assumed as 5%, the minimum

    regional value used in the model. Wyoming 4.0% 5.0% DSIRE 2007 No binding RPS currently for

    WY. Base RPS has been assumed

    as 5%, the minimum regional

    value used in the model.

    7.6% 15% Weighted average of the projected WECC Total

     2020 RPS standards within each

    zone. 6All 2008 values are calculated based the Western Electricity Coordinating Council‟s Transmission Expansion Planning Committee (TEPPC) generation commission date assumptions, TEPPC draft released

    in September 2007. Generators have been assigned to regions based on their known ownership and

    physical location. Hydro generation larger than 30 MW is not included.

Sources

BC Hydro, Electric Load Forecast 2004/04 2025/26,

    http://www.bchydro.com/rx_files/policies/policies18392.pdf

DOE Energy Information Agency 2005 Electric Sales and Revenue Report,

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/esr_sum.html

    Kralovic, Paul, and Dinara Mutysheva, “The Role of Renewable Energy in Alberta‟s

    Energy Future,” November 2006,

    http://www.iseee.ca/files/iseee/ABEnergyFutures-15.pdf

NC State University, “Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency

    (DSIRE),” June 2007 update. http://www.dsireusa.org/index.cfm?&CurrentPageID=7&EE=1&RE=1

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