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2010-04-14+Global+Investor+Sentiment+Survey+(E)+-+Asia

By Sylvia Simmons,2014-04-14 12:26
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2010-04-14+Global+Investor+Sentiment+Survey+(E)+-+Asia

     FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

    For more information, please contact

    Cindy Yang

    Manager / Marketing & Communications

    Tel: 86 21 6141 3604

    Email: Cindy.Yang@colliers.com

    Colliers International Global Investor Sentiment Survey:

    Property Clock Chimes Six for Asia

    -- Real Estate Investors Worldwide See Market Ready to Rebound --

Shanghai, 14 April 2010 Respondents to Colliers International’s 2010 Global Investor

    Sentiment Survey from Asia view the market as at or near the bottom of the cycle, putting the

    recovery at 6 o’clock on the “Global Property Clock”. Respondents also expect the Asia

    market to reach 8 o’clock within 12 months, i.e. projecting to be in recovery mode in one year.

The Global Property Clock equates market cycles to specific times, with 12 o’clock

    representing the top of the market and six o’clock representing the bottom. Each six-hour period in between designates rising (after 6:00, to 12:00) or declining (after 12:00, to 6:00)

    cycles.

Real estate investors worldwide are painting a more optimistic picture of the market, with

    many convinced that the next up cycle will begin in the year ahead. That optimism is

    reflected by two out of three respondents who expressed a desire to expand their portfolios in

    the next 12 months.

    Overall, findings from Colliers International’s inaugural Global Investor Sentiment Survey – compiled from 244 major institutional and private global investors with a total investment

    portfolio exceeding $300 billion note that a majority of respondents believe the market is at

    or near bottom and the largest two groups, 41 percent, see the market between five and six

    o’clock.

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    Colliers International Press Release

    4/14/2010 Continued

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    “Investors clearly see the market resetting overall and about to enter the next up cycle. In Asia,

    the market is approaching its reset phase,” said Piers Brunner, chief executive officer Asia,

    Colliers International.

Respondents view Latin America (8:30) and the Pacific region (7:00) as already on the

    upswing. The Pacific region includes Australia and New Zealand. The USA and Asia at 6:00

    were viewed as at the market’s bottom, while the Middle East, Eastern and Western Europe

    and Canada were all still viewed as in the down part of the cycle. With the exception of

    Eastern Europe, respondents believe all these areas of the world will be in various stages of

    the “up” phase of the market in the next 12 months.

While those seeking to expand their portfolios expressed a higher comfort level doing so in

    their home markets, they also saw future opportunity in several emerging markets, such as

    Poland, Ukraine, Vietnam, Brazil and India.

Despite this overwhelmingly positive outlook, investors are still cautious and expressed some

    areas of concern, said Piers.

One of those major concerns is financing. Respondents were evenly split on whether

    financing is more or less accessible today than it was one year ago. However, their optimism

    shined through once again when taking a look at the year ahead. Nearly 90 percent of

    respondents believe that financing will be easier to secure within the next twelve months.

    Most, however, thought the cost of financing would increase.

Investors from Asia, Canada, Latin America and Western Europe indicated an improvement in

    access to financing over the last year, while those in the USA and the Pacific saw no change.

    Investors in the Middle East and Eastern Europe saw less availability to financing.

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    Colliers International Press Release

     4/14/2010

    Page Continued

Another theme running through the survey was a shifting preference towards high-quality and

    income-producing properties. The move back towards income and less emphasis on capital

    appreciation was best captured by the sentiment from one survey respondent who said,

    “capital gains are just a bonus; we buy property for income.”

On the capital markets side, the survey results also revealed a considerable divergence of

    opinion regarding the market’s return to “normal” (defined as 7.0 – 7.5 percent capitalization

    rates for office product), although most respondents anticipate that their respective markets

    will return to “normal” within the next 18 months.

On a geographic basis, Asia investors expect to see the domestic market return to normal by

    Q4 2010, ahead of other regions globally. Investors in Asia and the Pacific expect a return to

    normal by the fourth quarter of 2010, followed by those in Canada, Latin America, Eastern

    Europe and Western Europe by the first quarter of 2011, and the United States in the second

    quarter of 2011.

Another important conclusion to be drawn from the survey is the perception of how the

    market has changed structurally, according to Ross Moore, Executive Vice President and

    Director of Market & Economic Research for Colliers International.

“Many investors expressed the view that real estate cycles are now shorter and more severe

    than historical norms, which serves as a warning to others that going forward, market

    participants will need to be more nimble. Access to current and insightful analysis will be

    more important than ever,” Moore concluded.

Additional findings from the survey:

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    ? Many investors viewed the events of the last two years as a good reminder that

    commercial real estate is highly cyclical and timing is critical to making profits.

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Colliers International Press Release

    4/14/2010

    Page 4

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    ? Globally, rents are anticipated to hit bottom this year the first quarter of 2010 for the

    office sector was the most frequent response, followed by the second quarter of 2010

    for industrial, and the third or fourth quarter 2010 for retail.

    ? There appears to be a genuine feeling that despite a challenging economic backdrop,

    particularly in the United States and certain European countries, real estate prices

    today represent good value, and many are willing to look past what could be a difficult

    period in terms of rents and vacancies and to better times down the road.

About Colliers International

    Colliers International is a leading global real estate services company that provides a full range of services to real

    estate users, owners and investors worldwide. Colliers operates in 61 countries. Services include brokerage,

    property management, hotel investment sales and consulting, corporate services, valuation, consulting and

    appraisal services, mortgage banking and research.

For further information, please contact:

Mr. Ross Moore

    Executive Vice President, Market & Economic Research

    North America

    Ross.Moore@colliers.com

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    Our Knowledge is your Property

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